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"Two sources with knowledge of internal GOP polling tell us that Prosser and Kloppenburg are near even, a bad sign for the incumbent."

Writes Robert Costa in the National Review:

?She has driven his negatives up,? one source says. ?It will be hard to drive hers up. Her lack of judicial experience should hurt her, but it also makes her harder to pin down. The question now is: Does the Right have enough resources to counter the Greater Wisconsin Committee?s millions? And even if they do, is it too late? It is going to be touch-and-go for these last few days.?...

According to state-election figures, nonpartisan spring elections usually draw less than 20 percent of the electorate: 18 percent in 2009, 19 percent in 2008, 19 percent in 2007, and 12 percent in 2006. To win, GOP officials say Prosser will need to draw strong numbers from emerging conservative pockets in Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee, and Racine counties. If voters from these areas don?t show, but liberals pile into voting booths in Dane County and Madison proper, Kloppenburg could cruise to victory.

?Look, this race is not a referendum on the governor or a specific piece of legislation,? Brian Nemoir says. ?It has a much broader scope. supreme-court judges are elected to ten-year terms on purpose. Their elections are not intended to be snapshot responses to the current political environment.?

But if the election depends mostly on turnout, portraying it as a referendum on the governor is probably a better strategy than the usual grim focus on judicial aptitude and temperament. Who can be moved to go out and vote next Tuesday when it's just about a judgeship?

I hate these stranded elections. You have more power than usual, if you vote, because so few vote. That might be some motivation to vote, but... obviously not. That's the whole point: Few vote. Who are those few? The super-heated political types. So... how does that work for a judicial election? You can see that this stranded April 5th voting day presents a special problem with respect to keeping judicial elections above politics. Judicial elections above politics... it makes even less sense than usual.

Prosser has criticized the very negative ads that Kloppenburg supporters have put up, but if his supporters don't come on strong in retaliation, he's going to lose.

Full post as published by Althouse on March 28, 2011 (boomark / email).