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: Althouse"Polls show Mr. Biden leading by five to 13 points, but I grew up around here and am dubious. This place ? the land of hoagies and Bradley Cooper and Rocky Balboa worship..."
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"... and Tina Fey?s 'Cousin Karen' accent ? has transmogrified into Trumplandia. 'He has so much more support than in 2016, because it?s been four years of accomplishments,' said Darinna Thompson, 49, a homemaker who was talking with a group of women outside the Trump Store. They were part of a caravan that had just encircled the Democrats? rally 'to say bye-bye to Biden' and let his supporters know they were outnumbered.... Pollsters say that suburban women are President Trump?s kryptonite, that they?ve turned on him.... 'I feel like that?s wrong ? we?re the majority,' said Jennifer Girard, 41, a single mother working in consumer goods.... My mom says many of her girlfriends will go for Mr. Trump, and she hasn?t been able to match with any man on Bumble who isn?t a Trump voter.... The front yards of the houses flanking my mom?s, the one across the street and three more on the block feature Trump signs. There is one Biden sign on the street. One of my mom?s acquaintances recently held a Trump-themed birthday party for her child. Icing on each cookie read, 'Make ninth birthdays great again.'... Lochel?s bakery in Hatboro has become an overnight Oracle of (Phila) Delphi, selling red 'Trump 2020? and blue 'Biden 2020' sugar cookies. Whichever cookie sells the most will predict how this area, and thus the state, and therefore the election, will turn. Supposedly.... So far, the count stands at 3,367 blue cookies, 18,241 red. 'I do think that Trump supporters are more competitive,' said Dan Rutledge, standing in line outside of the bakery in the spitting rain on Sunday."From "Can We Trust Pennsylvania?s Polls?/They show Joe Biden clinching crucial counties. So why does it feel so different on the ground here?" by Shawn McCreesh (NYT).
ADDED: At FiveThirtyEight: "Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?" Answer to the question: "No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He?d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania.... The reason losing Pennsylvania wouldn?t necessarily doom Biden is because he could still hold those other Midwestern/Rust Belt states. Pennsylvania is fairly similar to Michigan and Wisconsin, but not that similar."
Full post as published by Althouse on October 27, 2020 (boomark / email).
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