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Nate Silver says "Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016," but there's good reason to believe the polls are more off.

Before I tell you what I think is the good reason, let's see what Nate Silver came up with:Biden is unambiguously ahead in the polls. The Normal-Polling-Error Zone is a place we talked about in 2016, when we told you that Trump was only a normal-sized polling error away from beating Hillary Clinton.... The Zone of Plausibility...is where we are this year. I think of the Zone of Plausibility as extending out to reflect an error of up to two standard deviations ? so, it?s a race where the favorit read more

Full post as published by Althouse on November 01, 2020 (boomark / email).