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Fickle Palmetto State

By Skeet Shooting

Now that Michigan has come and gone, GOP eyes shift to South Carolina and Florida; and the Democrats to South Carolina and Nevada, respectively. I will make a bold claim here: South Carolina will determine the nominees and the Presidency in 2008.

Here's why:

First in the GOP contest, John McCain's perceived edge in SC is illusory. RCP's Poll tracking shows why. McCain's extremely slim lead appears immediately after New Hampshire and Huckabee's poll strength grows only after the media started treating him as viable in early December 2007.

McCain's lead jumped 8 points in the polls from 21 to 29 after NH and Huckabee's underperformance saw his numbers shrink by a comparable margin, 33 down to 23. To me, this signals that a large margin of the GOP electorate is fluid and influenced by "momentum" talk.

The GOP is itching to vote for a winner, but with some conditions.

Romney will benefit from his sizeable and unexpected (in media circles and for this writer) trouncing of McCain in an open primary state like Michigan. Another telling sign is that Romney's numbers have held relatively steady after two high-profile defeats in Iowa against a social conservative/regional candidate, and against a maverick/national candidate in New Hampshire.

This demonstrates that Romney, barring the revelation of an illegitimate black child or a stash of kiddie porn, can maintain at least 15% of the vote no matter the beating he takes elsewhere. I don't think that can be said for McCain or Huckabee once their mettle is really tested.

McCain and Huckabee were both polling 10% in November, and have doubled those figures, but not with the "hardcore" types that Romney has maintained throughout his ignominious defeats.

With a shift of 10% to Romney, split between former Huckabee and McCain supporters, he is in a good position to win SC and consolidate elsewhere having effectively killed the candidacy of McCain and maybe Huckabee.

Commentary on the media coverage of this race is for another time, but NPR's tag this morning was dumbfounding: "Now SC becomes a three-man race." Three?

The implication being Romney was finished but has been resurrected. Aside from the dismissiveness toward the best organized and funded campaign in SC (Romney), this flies in the face of the media's 2008 experience--getting burned on every prediction they've made.

Fred Thompson has campaigned ONLY in the Palmetto State since December and appeals deeply to the subtly libertarian/federalist instinct down there. This is John C. Calhoun/Strom Thurmond/Fort Sumter country and now host to the most libertarian governor since NM's Gary Johnson or CO's Bill Owens in Mark Sanford.

The tracking chart does not do justice to the polls---Thompson has been gaining, not losing ground since his poor showings in NH, IA and now Michigan. He has a message and a regional touch that has been ignored. Huckabee's interventionist social conservatism does not define all southern conservatism or garner its votes. Thompson will make a strong showing on election day, as Huckabee's and McCain's "momentum" support wanes.

The question for me is: where do the piggy-backing/dissatisfied voters go now? I'd hazard to guess Thompson or Romney.

On the Dem side, the question the media's been asking about SC is off-kilter: Does Obama or Clinton get the black voter in SC?

It doesn't matter! Without a dramatic party shift away from the Dems in 2008, black voters are a bloc for the blue team. It's marginal white "democrats" that matter in southern to mid-western states that will decide 2008.

Many southern states still have disproportionate Democratic registration rates among whites who are reliable GOPers in presidential contests but cross over in Senate, House and Governor races and vote for "conservative" democrats like Mark Pryor and in SC, Fritz Hollings.

It's these voters that Democrats have to attract come November, and they risk alienating them by a hard pander to black voters whose interests are perceived to conflict with that of lower-middle class whites. If Hillary and Barack go bare knuckles after undecided black voters in a crass contest of "who is blacker?"---they will alienate the marginal "Democrats" needed to put a Democrat in the White House in 2008.

Iraq, the mortgage crisis, trade related-job loss, and GOP corruption have put these voters in a "lean-Democrat" column for November, but that advantage could easily be erased. Hillary won these voters in NH and IA, and Edwards appeals to their populist instincts, but a shift to the media's self-declared "all important black vote" model will alienate them by November.

Obama, though he isn't garnering these marginal democrats now, can still attract them in November. But if the Democratic rhetoric continues to emphasize race and identity politics, these marginal voters could sour on all Democrats.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on January 16, 2008 (boomark / email).