Legal Commentary

Rudy's Last Stand: Florida or Bust?

By Jeralyn

The Guardian reports on Rudy's strategy of foregoing the early states to focus on Florida.

Shorter version: Rudy's last stand.

My take: A loss in Florida will be a body blow. But Tsunami Tuesday, with California, New York, New Jersey and others still count. Don't underestimate him and don't over-estimate McCain. Rudy still needs defeating. Ignoring him or dismissing him is not the right strategy. It's what he's hoping for, that while others see him as laying low in the weeds and stop paying attention, he's been making gains pounding the pavement in Florida with a ten day advantage over his rivals.

Will it work? Hopefully not. But it's not over yet. From the Guardian: [More...]

Such a message, combined with his promise to give voters 'the biggest tax cut in history', should be music to the ears of many Florida voters. The state has more than 20 military bases and many retired veterans. It also has a large population of former New Yorkers who think well of their former mayor and for whom 9/11 has an even deeper resonance than it does for other Americans.

...Experts think Giuliani could still win. Previous states have been defined by narrow bands of voters, such as evangelicals in Iowa and southern social conservatives in South Carolina. But that is not true of Florida. It is a diverse state with a large Hispanic population. It has big cities like Miami and Orlando, as well as a small-town culture in the north. It is full of retirees who have come from elsewhere and its evangelical base is small.

Rudy's biggest concern: Money.

His financial backers have also started to dry up. Though his campaign coffers contained about $7m at the start of the year, his daily spending on Florida's TV can top $300,000 a day. His top campaign staffers are now working for free.

Fears of terrorism have receded as the economy has tanked. But, one or two scares or pseudo-scares, particularly if publicity-enhanced, could change that.

Experts agree. All it needs is for Giuliani to win Florida and suddenly he will be the frontrunner going into Super Tuesday on 5 February. 'If he wins, the race will be transformed,' said MacManus.That is what Giuliani's band of Florida supporters are pinning their hopes on.

Let's not help him. Bloggers should continue to point out why Rudy should not be our President. I'll take half a dozen Huckabees or Romneys any day over Giuliani. As for McCain, I'm sorry, he's my grandfather's Oldsmobile and he thinks he can win this race based on an ancient record people love alongside a more recent record on immigration his people will hate.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on January 20, 2008 (boomark / email).