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Legal Commentary

: LawPundit

College Football Game Predictions Weekend of August 28, 2008

By Andis Kaulins

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These are our SPRS-based predictions for the first week of college football in the 2008 / 2009 season. We do this solely because it interests us and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance of any kind on our prognostications. May the best team win.

College Football Game Matchups August 23 to September 1, 2008 (visitor v. home) Game below played on August 30 unless otherwise stated. The figure after each team is our rating for that team. NR means not rated in top 250 SPRS Ratings. The dash means minus, so that a rating of -4.0 is 3 worse than -1.0. A one point SPRS rating difference means 9 points on the scoreboard.	Betting Line (+ means home team is favored) College Football Prediction Tracker August 18, 2008	Our Line and Predicted Score based on our SPRS RATINGS & RANKINGS	Actual Score	Win Loss vs. Winner	Win Loss vs. Spread
Fort Valley State (NR) v. Valdosta State -2.3 (August 23)	--	+48 pts :: 0-48	3-56	W	--
Idaho -5.4 v. Arizona -1.1	+ 28	+41 pts :: 7-48 A 1-point difference in SPRS ratings equals 9 points on the scoreboard so that Idaho rated -5.4 and Arizona -1.1 or a difference of 4.3, multiplied by 9 = 38.7. In addition, we use Sagarin's calculated home field advantage of 2.58 so that the full spread is 41.28 points. For ease of calculation we use 2.6. instead of 2.58.
Temple -4.6 v. Army -4.6 (August 29)	-7	+3 pts :: 21-24 Our SPRS system rates these teams equal at -4.6, so we give the edge to the home team by 2.6 (or a field goal) +3 pts
Louisiana-Monroe -3.2 v. Auburn -0.7	+27	2.5 x 9 = 22.5 pts + 2.6 home field advantage = +25 pts (BUT, Auburn has a new offensive coordinator who we think is worth 10 points more, so that we increase the spread to +35 pts :: 7-42
Wake Forest -1.2 v. Baylor -4.0 (August 28)	-12.5	2.8 x 9 = 25.2 - 2.6 home field advantage = -23 pts :: 30-7
UTEP -4.5 v. Buffalo -4.0 (August 28)	+3	0.5 x 9 = 4.5 + 2.6 = +7 pts :: 35-42
Michigan State -1.4 v. California -0.5	+6	0.9 x 9 = 8.1 + 2.6 = +11 pts :: 30-41
Alabama -1.5 v. Clemson -0.3	+5.5	1.2 x 9 = 10.8 +2.6 = +13 pts :: 21-34 (Saban's Alabama will be better this year but no one knows yet how much, so in spite of the stats, this may be a tough game to call)
Colorado -2.3 v. Colorado St. -3.4 (August 31)	-11.5	1.1 x 9 = 9.9 -2.6 = -7 pts :: 34-27
Virginia Tech -0.3 v. East Carolina -2.3	-10	2.0 x 9 = 19 - 2.6 = -16 pts :: 30-14
Hawaii -0.1 v. Florida +0.8	+34.5	0.9 x 9 = 8.1 + 2.6 = +11 pts :: 38-49
Western Kentucky -3.3 v. Indiana -2.1	+21	1.2 x 9 = 10.8 + 2.6 = +13 pts :: 20-33
Florida Intl. -5.5 v. Kansas +0.8	+36.5	6.3 x 9 = 56.7 + 2.6 = +59 pts :: 0-59
North Texas -5.7 v. Kansas State -1.7	+25	4.0 x 9 = 36 + 2.6 = +39 pts :: 3-42
Boston College -0.1 v. Kent State - 4.3	-10	3.3 x 9 = 29.7 - 2.6 = -27 pts :: 34-7
Mississippi St. -1.9 v. Louisiana Tech -4.1	-9	2.2 x 9 = 19.2 - 2.6 = -17 pts :: 31-14
Kentucky -0.9 v. Louisville -1.9 (August 31)	+5	1.0 x 9 = 9 - 2.6 = -6 pts :: 27-21
Vanderbilt -2.0 v. Miami (Ohio) -3.1 (August 28)	+3.5	1.1 x 9 = 9.9 - 2.6 = -7 pts :: 17-10
Utah -1.4 v. Michigan -0.9	+4	0.5 x 9 = 4.5 + 2.6 = +7 pts :: 17-24
Troy State -1.8 v. Middle Tennessee -3.4 (August 28)	-6.5	1.6 x 9 = 14.4 - 2.6 = -12 pts :: 41-29
Northern Illinois -5.1 v. Minnesota -4.5	+8.5	0.6 x 9 = 5.4 + 2.6 = +8 pts :: 36-44
Memphis -4.3 v. Mississippi -2.3	+9.5	2.0 x 9 = 18 + 2.6 = +21 pts :: 21-42
Illinois - 0.6 v. Missouri + 0.4	+8.5	1.0 x 9 = 9 +2.6 = +12 pts :: 33-45
Western Michigan -4.0 v. Nebraska -1.5	+14	2.5 x 9 = 22.5 + 2.6 = +25 pts We do not understand the official spread here as even last season's performance would warrant a 4 TD difference, and with the AD and coaching changes of the Huskers under Osborne and Pelini, we think that is worth another 2 TDs, so that we make the spread here +39 points :: 13-52
TCU -1.7 v. New Mexico -1.6	-6.5	0.1 x 9 = 0.9 + 2.6 = +3 pts :: 14-17
Syracuse -4.3 v. Northwestern -2.6	+12	1.7 x 9 = 15.3 + 2.6 = +18 pts :: 20-38
Washington -2.6 v. Oregon -0.2	+14	2.4 x 9 = 21.6 + 2.6 = +24 pts :: 17-41
Bowling Green -3.3 v. Pittsburgh -1.5	+12	1.8 x 9 = 16.2 + 2.6 = +19 pts :: 17-36
SMU -5.2 v. Rice (August 29) -5.5	+3	0.3 x 9 = 2.7 - 2.6 = 0 points so we give the advantage to the home team +1 pts :: 35-36
Fresno State -1.9 v. Rutgers (September 1) -0.4	+5.5	1.5 x 9 = 13.5 + 2.6 = + 16 pts :: 14-30
NC State -2.4 v. South Carolina -1.2 (August 28)	+11	1.2 x 9 = 10.8 + 2.6 = +13 pts :: 21-34
Louisiana-Lafayette -3.4 v. Southern Miss -3.4	+11	0 x 9 = 0, the teams are even, +2.6 home field = +3 pts :: 24-27
Oregon State -0.7 v. Stanford -3.3 (August 28)	-3	2.6 x 9 = 23.4 - 2.6 = -21 pts :: 35-14
Florida Atlantic -2.2 v. Texas -0.1	+23.5	2.3 x 9 = 20.7 +2.6 = +23 pts but the new defensive coordinator from Auburn is worth 7 at least so that we call it +30 pts :: 7-37
Arkansas State -3.5 v. Texas A&M -2.0	+20	1.5 x 9 = 13.5 +2.6 = +16 pts :: 17-33
Tulsa -1.5 v. UAB -5.4	-14.5	3.9 x 9 = 35.1 - 2.6 = -33 pts :: 60-27 (the nation's best offense meets one of the nation's worst defenses)
Tennessee -0.8 v. UCLA -1.4 (September 1)	-6	0.6 x 9 = 5.4 - 2.6 = -3 pts :: 20-17
Utah State -5.1 v. UNLV -3.7	+12.5	1.4 x 9 = 12.6 + 2.6 = +15 pts :: 27-42
USC (Southern Cal) +0.9 v. Virginia -1.3	-19.5	2.2 x 9 = 19.2 - 2.6 = -17 pts :: 14-31
Oklahoma State -0.9 v. Washington State -1.5	-6	0.6 x 9 = 5.4 - 2.6 = -3 pts :: 34-31
Akron -4.0 v. Wisconsin -1.6	+26	2.4 x 9 = 21.6 +2.6 = +24 pts :: 7-31
Ohio -3.8 v. Wyoming -2.7	+10	1.1 x 9 = 9.9 +2.6 = +13 pts :: 7-20
Eastern Illinois -5.2 v. Central Michigan -2.8 (August 28)		2.4 x 9 = 21.6 +2.6 = +24 pts :: 24-48
Indiana State NR v. Eastern Michigan -5.1 (August 28)		+14 pts :: 21-35
Northeastern -4.9 v. Ball State -3.1 (August 28)		1.8 x 9 = 16.2 - 2.6 = +19 pts :: 20-39
Eastern Kentucky -4.5 v. Cincinnati -0.8 (August 28)		3.7 x 9 = 33.3 - 2.6 = +36 pts :: 13-49
Jacksonville St. NR v. Georgia Tech -1.7 (August 28)		+45 pts :: 7-52
Charleston S. NR v. Miami of Florida -2.2 (August 28)		+42 pts :: 6-48
Hofstra -3.1 v. Connecticut - 1.9 (August 28)		1.2 x 9 = 10.8 - 2.6 = +13 pts :: 23-36
South Dakota State -3.3 v. Iowa State - 3.7 (August 28)		0.4 x 9 = 3.6 - 2.6 = -1 pts :: 24-23

August 28
Shorter NR v. Western Carolina - 5.8		+14 pts :: 17-31
Henderson St. - 4.6 v. Central Arkansas - 4.7		0.1 x 9 = 0.9 - 2.6 = +2 pts :: 28-30
Texas A&M Kingsville NR v. North Dakota - 1.8		+45 pts :: 10-55
Austin Peay NR v. North Dakota St. - 1.4		+49 pts :: 7-56
Gardner-Webb -4.4 v. Tennessee Tech		-14 pts :: 37-23
Montana-Western - 5.1 v. Weber St. -4.4		0.7 x 9 = 6.3 + 2.6 = +9 pts :: 17-26
August 29
Marist NR v. San Diego -4.5		+17 pts :: 14-31
August 30
Maine -4.9 v. Iowa -2.4		2.5 x 9 = 22.5 + 2.6 = +25 pts :: 10-35
Youngstown St. - 3.6 v. Ohio State +1.2		4.8 x 9 = 43.2 + 2.6 = +46 pts :: 3-49
Coastal Carolina NR v. Penn State -0.7		+50 pts :: 7-57
Georgia Southern - 3.1 v. Georgia + 0.3		3.4 x 9 = 30.6 + 2.6 = +33 pts :: 7-40
Monmouth NR v. Rhode Island - 5.9		+14 pts :: 20-34
Southern Utah -5.7 v. Air Force -1.4		4.3 x 9 = 38.7 +2.6 = +41 pts :: 10-51
SE Louisiana - 5.8 v. Alcorn State NR		-14 pts :: 28-14
Adams State NR v. Montana State -4.6		+14 pts :: 17-31
Villanova -3.3 v. West Virginia +1.2		4.5 x 9 = 40.5 + 2.6 = +43 pts :: 6-49
Towson -5.2 v. Navy -2.9		2.3 x 9 = 20.7 + 2.6 = +23 pts :: 26-49
Delaware -2.5 v. Maryland -2.1		0.4 x 9 = 3.6 + 2.6 = +6 pts :: 28-34
Western Oregon - 4.6 v. Portland St. - 5.2		0.6 x 9 = 5.4 - 2.6 = -3 pts :: 38-35
Illinois State - 5.1 v. Marshall - 3.5		1.6 x 9 = 14.4 + 2.6 = +17 pts :: 24-41
Appalachian State - 1.6 v. LSU + 0.9		2.5 x 9 = 22.5 + 2.6 = +25 pts :: 30-55
McNeese State - 2.7 v. North Carolina -2.0		0.7 x 9 = 6.3 + 2.6 = +9 pts :: 24-33
Albany -5.5 v. Massachusetts -1.5		4.0 x 9 = 36 - 2.6 = +39 pts :: 10-49
Mars Hill NR v. Furman - 3.9		+30 pts :: 14-44
Northern Iowa - 1.9 v. BYU -0.2		1.7 x 9 = 15.3 +2.6 = +18 pts :: 7-25
S. Carolina St. - 3.2 v. UCF - 1.5		1.7 x 9 = 15.3 + 2.6 = +18 pts = 24-42
Colgate - 5.0 v. Stony Brook - 5.1		0.1 x 9 = 0.9 - 2.6 = +2 pts :: 31-33
Virginia St. NR v. Norfolk St. - 5.8		+14 pts :: 14-28
Southern - 5.2 v. Houston - 2.7		2.5 x 9 = 22.5 - 2.6 = +25 pts :: 17-42
Richmond - 2.5 v. Elon - 3.6		1.1 x 9 = 9.9 - 2.6 = -7 pts :: 24-17
Chattanooga - 4.8 v. Oklahoma + 0.8		5.6 x 9 = 50.4 + 2.6 = +53 pts :: 6-59
Eastern Washington -3.0 v. Texas Tech +0.2		3.2 x 9 = 28.8 +2.6 = +31 pts :: 20-51
Tennessee St. -5.9 v. Alabama A&M -4.8		1.1 x 9 = 9.9 + 2.6 = +13 pts :: 27-40
Webber v. Citadel -3.4		+35 pts :: 7-42
North Greenville NR v. Liberty - 3.5		+35 pts :: 13-48
East Central NR v. Sam Houston St. - 4.2		+28 pts :: 14 -42
Angelo St. NR v. Texas St. - 6.1		+14 pts :: 17-31
James Madison -2.2 v. Duke - 4.2		2.0 x 9 = 18 - 2. 6 = -15 pts. :: 35-20
Western Illinois -3.3 v. Arkansas + 0.1		3.4 x 9 = 30.6 + 2.6 = +33 pts :: 14-47
Presbyterian -6.1 v. Wofford -3.1		3.0 x 9 = 27 +2.6 = +30 pts :: 14-44
Tenn-Martin -5.7 v. South Florida -0.4		5.3 x 9 = 47.7 + 2.6 = +50 pts :: 9-59
St. Ambrose NR v. South Dakota - 2.5		+49 pts :: 7-56
Texas Southern NR v. Prairie View A&M - 5.6		+14 pts :: 21-35
UC Davis -4.8 v. San Jose St. -3.5		1.3 x 9 = 11.7 + 2.6 = +14 pts :: 23-37
Idaho St. - 6.4 v. Boise St. - 1.7		4.7 x 9 = 42.3 + 2.6 = +45 pts :: 7-52
Grambling St. -4.7 v. Nevada -3.0		1.7 x 9 = 15.3 + 2.6 = +18 pts :: 24-42
Cal Poly -3.7 v. San Diego St. - 3.6		0.1 x 9 = 0.9 + 2.6 = 3 pts :: 34-36
Northern Arizona -4.6 v. Arizona St. -0.6		4.0 x 9 = 36 + 2.6 = +39 pts :: 14-53
August 31
Jackson State -4.4 v. Hampton - 6.0		1.6 x 9 = 14.4 - 2.6 = -12 pts :: 33-21
Fayetville St. NR v. N.C. Central NR
Dayton - 4.4 v. Central St. NR		-21 pts :: 35-14

Full post as published by LawPundit on August 24, 2008 (boomark / email).