Legal Commentary

Alabama is favored by 30 points over Tulane.
Our SPRS final rankings of last year give Alabama a rating of -1.5 points and Tulane a rating of -4.5 points. Each point of rating difference, here three rating points, is worth 9 scoring points on the scoreboard. i.e. 3 x 9 = 27. To that, one adds the home field advantage, which we have rounded to 3 points, and, since the Crimson Tide hold the home field advantage, this is 27 + 3 points = 30 points. Based on the impressive Alabama win over ranked and highly regarded Clemson last week, however, we think that 'Bama is 1 TD better than that and call it by 37, Alabama 51 Clemson 14.

Arizona is favored by 23 points over Toledo.
By SPRS ratings, Arizona is rated at -1.1 and Toledo -4.0 = a difference of 2.9 x 9 scoring points = 26 points plus 3 points for home field advantage = 29 points. Toledo's high-powered offense faces a high-powered defense, but last week the Arizona offense also jelled in a 70-0 victory over Idaho. We call it Arizona 49 Toledo 20.

Arizona State is favored by 14 points over Stanford.
By SPRS ratings, Arizona State is -0.6 and Stanford is -3.3, which is 2.7 x 9 points = 24 points plus a home field advantage for Arizona State, which makes 27 points. Stanford's gritty win over Oregon State last week, which outgained the Cardinal substantially in total offense, shows that Stanford will be a tougher team to beat this year, but the Sun Devils may just have too much football talent for Stanford yet, in spite of great strides made under terrific head coach Jim Harbaugh. We call it Arizona State 38 Stanford 21, even though we will, as a Stanford alumnus, of course be rooting for the football team from Palo Alto.

Arkansas is favored by 12 points over Louisiana-Monroe.
How the "mighty" Razorbacks have fallen, nearly losing to Western Illinois last week. Their best former coach is at Tulsa (Gus Malzahn), their former controversial head coach is at Mississippi and their best former players are at USC. According to the final SPRS from last season, Arkansas has a rating of +0.1, one of only eleven teams in the country to have a plus rating. Louisiana-Monroe has a rating of 3.2, so that Arkansas would normally have an advantage of 3.3 rating points x 9 scoring points = 30 scoring points plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 33 points. Louisiana-Monroe lost by a similar 34-0 last week to Auburn and we can see very little likelihood that this will change this week against the Razorbacks. We call it 40-7 for Arkansas.

Auburn is favored by 17 1/2 points over Southern Miss. The SPRS rating for Auburn is -0.7 and for Southern Miss -3.4 so that Auburn must be seen as about 2.7 (3.4 minus 0.7) x 9 points = 24 points plus 3 points for home team = 27 points better than Southern Miss. We call it Auburn 44 and Southern Miss 17.

Ball State is favored by 7 1/2 points over Navy.
By SPRS, Ball State has a rating of -3.1 and Navy -2.9. This makes Ball State .2 x 9 points = 1.8 points worse than Navy, but with the 3 points for home team advantage, makes Ball State about a 1 point favorite. We think that the Navy rushing offense will prevail and call it 46-44 for the Midshipmen.

Boston College is favored by 7 points over Georgia Tech.
By SPRS the Eagles are rated -0.1 and the Yellow Jackets -1.7, i.e. an advantage of 1.6 x 9 points = 14 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 17 points. We call it 38-21 for Boston College.

Bowling Green is favored by 5 1/2 points over Minnesota.
The Falcons were annihilated 63-7 by Tulsa to close out last season and came out of nowhere to defeat Pittsburgh 27-17 last week, whereas the Gophers barely squeaked by Northern Illinois. By SPRS, Bowling Green is rated -3.3 and Minnesota -4.5, a difference of 1.2 x 9 points = 11 points plus the home team advantage of 3 points = 14 points. We call it for the Falcons 38-24.

Central Florida is a 14 1/2 point underdog to South Florida.
By SPRS the Bulls have a rating of -0.4 as opposed to a rating of -1.5 for UCF, an advantage of 1.1 x 9 points = 10 points minus 3 points for home team advantage for UCF = 7 points. We call it 24-17 for South Florida.

Duke is a 6 point underdog to Northwestern.
By SPRS Duke has a rating of -4.2 versus a rating of -2.6 for Northwestern, an advantage of 1.6 x 9 points for Northwestern = 14 points minus 3 points home team advantage to Duke = 11 points. We call it 38-27 for Northwestern.

East Carolina is an 8 point underdog to West Virginia.
By SPRS, East Carolina has a rating of -2.3 as compared to a rating of +1.2 for the Mountaineers, an advantage of 3.5 rating points x 9 scoring points for West Virginia = 32 points minus 3 points home team advantage for the Pirates = 29 scoring points. Of course, one must also take into account this season that East Carolina beat highly regarded Virginia Tech 27-22. We call it for West Virginia 35-21.

Florida is a 21 1/2 point favorite over Miami of Florida.
SPRS Florida +0.8
SPRS Miam of Florida -2,2
The rating difference is 3 points x 9 scoring points = 27 points plus home field advantage to the Seminoles = 30 points. We call it 51-21 for Florida.

Florida Atlantic is a 13 point favorite over UAB.
SPRS Florida Atlantic -2.2
SPRS UAB -5.4
Rating difference is 3.2 points x 9 scoring points = 29 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 32 scoring points. We call it 45-13 for Florida Atlantic.

Georgia is a 23 point favorite over Central Michigan.
SPRS Georgia +0.3
SPRS Central Michigan -2.8
Rating difference is -3.1 points x 9 scoring point = 28 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 31 scoring points. We call it 44-13 for Georgia.

Iowa is a 27 point favorite over Florida International.
SPRS Iowa -2.4
SPRS Florida International -5.5
Rating difference is 3.1 points x 9 scoring points = 28 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 31 scoring points. We call it 48-17 for Iowa.

Iowa State is a 7 point favorite over Kent.
SPRS Iowa State -3.7
SPRS Kent State -4.3
Rating difference is .6 points x 9 scoring point = 5 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 8 scoring points. We call it 28-20 for Iowa State.

Kansas is a 20 1/2 point favorite Louisiana Tech.
SPRS Kansas +0.8
SPRS Louisiana Tech -4.1
Rating difference is 4.9 points x 9 scoring points = 44 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 47 scoring points. We call it 57-10 for Kansas.

LSU is - was - a 23 1/2 point favorite over Troy State - game postponed to November 15.
SPRS LSU +0.9
SPRS Troy State -1.8
Rating difference is 2.7 points x 9 scoring points = 24 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 27 scoring points. We called it 41-14 for LSU, but we will now have to wait what developments the season bring in the interim. This prognostication is placed on hold.

Memphis is favored by 3 1/2 points over Rice.
SPRS Memphis -4.3
SPRS Rice -5.5
Rating difference is 1.2 points x 9 scoring points = 11 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 14 scoring points. We call it 45-3 for Memphis.

Michigan is favored by 14 points over Miami (Ohio).
SPRS Michigan -0.9
SPRS Miami of Ohio -3.1
Rating difference is 2.2 points x 9 scoring points = 20 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 23 scoring points. We call it 30-7 for Michigan.

Michigan State is favored by 21 points over Eastern Michigan.
SPRS Michigan State -1.4
SPRS Eastern Michigan -5.1
Rating difference is 3.7 points x 9 scoring points = 33 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 36 scoring points. We call it 43-7 for Michigan State.

Middle Tennessee is a 13 1/2 point underdog to Maryland.
SPRS Maryland -2.1
SPRS Middle Tennessee -3.4
Rating difference is 1.3 points x 9 scoring points = 12 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 9 scoring points. We call it 35-24 for Maryland.

Nebraska is favored by 26 points over San Jose State.
SPRS Nebraska -1.5
SPRS San Jose State -3.5
Rating difference is 2 points x 9 scoring points = 18 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 21 scoring points. We call it 44-23 for the Huskers.

Nevada is a 10 point underdog to Texas Tech.
SPRS Texas Tech +0.2
SPRS Nevada -3.0
Rating difference is 3.2 points x 9 scoring points = 29 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 26 scoring points. We call it 50-24 for Texas Tech.

New Mexico is a 3 point underdog to Texas A&M.
SPRS New Mexico -1.6
SPRS Texas A&M -2.0
Rating difference is 0.4 points x 9 scoring points = 4 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 7 scoring points. We call it 34-27 for New Mexico.

North Texas is a 21 1/2 point underdog to Tulsa.
SPRS Tulsa -1.5
SPRS North Texas -5.7
Rating difference is 4.2 points x 9 scoring points = 38 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 35 scoring points. We call it 55-20 for Tulsa.

Notre Dame is a 22 1/2 point favorite over San Diego State.
SPRS Notre Dame -3.4
SPRS San Diego State -3.6
Rating difference is 0.2 points x 9 scoring points = 2 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 5 scoring points. We call it 19-14 for Notre Dame.

Ohio State is a 34 point favorite over Ohio.
SPRS Ohio State +1.2
SPRS Ohio -3.8
Rating difference is 5.0 points x 9 scoring points = 45 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 48 scoring points. We call it 55-7 for Ohio State.

Oklahoma is a 21 1/2 point favorite over Cincinnati.
SPRS Oklahoma +0.8
SPRS Cincinnati -0.8
Rating difference is 1.6 points x 9 scoring points = 14 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 17 scoring points. We call it 41-24 for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State is a 16 1/2 point favorite over Houston.
SPRS Oklahoma State -0.9
SPRS Houston -2.7
Rating difference is 1.8 points x 9 scoring points = 16 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 19 scoring points. We call it 40-21 for the Cowboys.

Oregon is a 35 1/2 point favorite over Utah State.
SPRS Oregon -0.2
SPRS Utah State -5.1
Rating difference is 4.9 points x 9 scoring points = 44 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 47 scoring points. We call it 54-7 for Oregon.

Penn State is a 16 1/2 point favorite over Oregon State.
SPRS Penn State -0.7
SPRS Oregon State -0.7
Rating difference is 0 points. The teams are even. Penn State has the home team advantage of 3 points. We call it 17-14 for the Nittany Lions.

Pittsburgh is a 13 point favorite over Buffalo.
SPRS Pittsburgh -1.5
SPRS Buffalo -4.0
Rating difference is 2.5 points x 9 scoring points = 23 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 26 scoring points. We call it 48-22 for Pittsburgh.

Syracuse is a 5 point favorite over Akron.
SPRS Syracuse -4.3
SPRS Akron -4.0
Rating difference is 0.3 points x 9 scoring points = -3 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 0 scoring points. The game is dead even by the stats. We call it 21-20 for Syracuse, giving the home team the advantage.

Temple is a 7 point underdog to Connecticut.
SPRS Temple -4.6
SPRS Connecticut -1.9
Rating difference is 2.7 points x 9 scoring points = 24 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 21 scoring points. We call it 42-21 for UConn.

UTEP is a 27 point underdog to Texas.
SPRS UTEP -4.5
SPRS Texas - 0.1
Rating difference is 4.4 points x 9 scoring points = 40 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 37 scoring points. We call it 44-7 for Texas.

Utah is a 21 1/2 point favorite over UNLV.
SPRS Utah -1.4
SPRS UNLV -3.7
Rating difference is 2.3 points x 9 scoring points = 21 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 24 scoring points. We call it 38-14 for Utah.

Vanderbilt is a 10 point underdog to South Carolina.
SPRS South Carolina -1.2
SPRS Vanderbilt -2.0
Rating difference is 0.8 points x 9 scoring points = 7 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 4 scoring points. We call it 24-20 for South Carolina.

Wake Forest is an 8 1/2 point favorite over Mississippi.
SPRS Wake Forest -1.2
SPRS Mississippi -2.3
Rating difference is 1.1 points x 9 scoring points = 10 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 13 scoring points. We call it 34-21 for Wake Forest.

Washington is a 9 point underdog to BYU.
SPRS Washington -2.6
SPRS BYU -0.2
Rating difference is 2.4 points x 9 scoring points = 22 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 19 scoring points. We call it 40-21 for BYU.

Washington State is a 13 1/2 point underdog to California.
SPRS Washington State -1.5
SPRS California -0.5
Rating difference is 1.0 points x 9 scoring points = 9 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 6 scoring points. We call it 34-28 for Cal.

Western Michigan is a 6 point favorite over Northern Illinois.
SPRS Western Michigan -4.0
SPRS Northern Illinois -5.1
Rating difference is 1.1 points x 9 scoring points = 10 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 13 scoring points. We call it 44-31 for Western Michigan.

Wisconsin is a 20 1/2 point favorite over Marshall.
SPRS Wisconsin -1.6
SPRS Marshall -3.5
Rating difference is 1.9 points x 9 scoring points = 17 points plus home field advantage of 3 points = 20 scoring points. We call it 41-21 for Wisconsin.

Wyoming is a 3 point favorite over Air Force.
SPRS Air Force -1.4
SPRS Wyoming -2.7
Rating difference is 1.3 points x 9 scoring points = 12 points minus home field advantage of 3 points = 9 scoring points. We call it 30-21 for Air Force.

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 03, 2008 (boomark / email).