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Joe the Plumber's 19 Days

By Matt Cooper

We're going to be seeing a lot of Joe the Plumber for the next 19 days.

The real life guy, Joe Wurzelbacher, made news the other day by questioning Barack Obama on his plan to hike taxes for those earning more than $250,000 a year. It was a good gambit by John McCain to bring him up, and he kept Obama on the defensive for the first part of their debate, the last of this presidential cycle.

McCain's "I'm-not-Bush" line was pretty good, reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's "I'm-not-Bill" line from the Democratic debates. But the Arizona senator veered off track when he got away from the economy. The Ayers-John Lewis-ACORN gambit fell flat, and Obama was able to diminish McCain by making him seem like he was aching about hurt feelings at a time when people are really hurting. Also, McCain's obvious seething probably didn't help as did his dismissive tone towards women's health on the issue of late term abortions.

I would love to have seen some more in-depth questions about the bailout. How do you feel about the federal government owning banks? Didn't the whole buy poisoned assets approach turn out to be a bomb? What do we do to stabilize the markets? On the day when the Dow drops 700-plus points, there should have been more about the markets and how to stabilize them.

Once again, the focus groups and instant polls showed Obama coming out ahead which is why the Ayers-ACORN thing seemed so ill-fitting, so 1988. This is not a year like that when you could kill Michael Dukakis on the Pledge of Allegience.

People care about one big thing and that's the economy. Even Iraq feels more distant. (I think it was the first debate without McCain praising General David Petraeus.) McCain has a case to make on the nation's financial health. I don't buy it, but at least it's an honest argument about taxation and spending. Anytime McCain got off a legitimate economic argument, it hurt him. I can't believe Joe the Plumber really cares about Bill Ayers.

Obama's mien, as has often been remarked, is so steady and unflappable it just seems hard to link him to 60s bomb throwers. McCain's got reason to be frustrated. He does have a more bipartisan record than Obama; he has bucked his party often; and he's getting whacked through an association with George W. Bush that's been strained at best. That's unfair, but it's the way it is and why McCain will likely be in the Senate come January and Obama will be in the Oval Office.

As for Joe the Plumber, it's true that Obama will raise his taxes back to Clinton-era levels. The question is whether that's going to clobber him to such a degree that he doesn't start his new business. My guess is that the difference between 36 and 39 percent won't be decisive. And if his customers have a little more dough in their pockets from tax cuts, that will help.

McCain tried to skew the argument by saying that more than half the revenue from small businesses comes from those making more than $250,000. But of course the vast majority of small businesses don't earn that much. Besides, any marginal difference in tax rates won't matter unless we get the markets stabilized and the economy moving.

My guess is that Joe Wurzelbacher will vote for McCain, but most of America's other Joes are going with Obama.

Matt Cooper

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Full post as published by Portfolio.com: Capital on October 16, 2008 (boomark / email).