Legal Commentary

Back in early September, I confess that I let my greed triumph over my humanity. I took advantage of my New York academic friends? paranoia by making numerous $100 bets that Obama would not merely beat McCain but would also win in Michigan, the state of my former domicile. My academic friends took the bait even though it seemed obvious to me that no Republican could possibly retain the White House saddled with a two-term unpopular Republican incumbent, an unpopular war, an uncertain economy, a depleted campaign war chest, and a shortage of volunteers (compared to Obama?s overflowing coffers and army of eager foot soldiers).

Why were my academic friends so quick to bet against the normal algorithm of American politics (i.e., bad economy + unpopular war + unpopular incumbent = defeat for incumbent?s party)? My diagnosis: Academic fear of their fellow Americans? alleged racism. My victims displayed a bizarrely confident belief that Obama?s poll numbers exaggerated his actual support, citing the alleged ?Bradley effect? (i.e., the tendency of white voters to misrepresent their willingness to vote for Black candidates to pollsters). Apparently, these academics believed that polls taken more than a quarter-century ago were a good mirror of contemporary racial attitudes.

As a result, I anticipate enjoying a four-figure economic windfall on November 5th simply by observing the following reliable adage (adapted from H.L. Mencken): ?No one ever went broke under-estimating academics? fear of the American public.?