Legal Commentary

At Least Six Bush States Trending to Obama

By Jeralyn

The San Francisco Chronicle examines the changing electoral map. Highlights:

In the RealClearPolitics' average of polls today, Obama was ahead, at least slightly, in most swing states: Colorado (5.5 percentage points), New Mexico (7.3), Nevada (5.8), Virginia (3.8), Pennsylvania (7), Florida (4.2), Ohio (4.2) and North Carolina (0.3). McCain had edges in Arizona (3.5 points), Georgia (3), Montana (3.8), Missouri (0.7) and Indiana (0.5).

Early voting indicators are problematic for McCain:

In North Carolina, 2.6 million people have already voted, with Democrats outpacing Republicans 51 percent to 31 percent, according to state figures. In Colorado, where more than half of the vote may come in before election day, a recent Associated Press poll showed Obama leading 57 percent to 34 percent among early voters.

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Obama is re-writing the map in the Rocky Mountain states:

In Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, the Illinois senator is expected to win by big margins among Latinos. He also has used his fundraising edge to outspend McCain 3-to-1 on television ads in Colorado in the campaign's final weeks.

McCain's strategy:

The McCain campaign still sees a path to victory, but it's a narrow one. He must hang on to both of the big swing states Bush won narrowly in 2000 and 2004 - Ohio and Florida - while avoiding losses in GOP bastions like Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina. He is playing for an upset victory in Pennsylvania - which backed Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and has 21 electoral votes - in case Obama wins one or more red states that are now leaning his way.

He also hopes last minute undecided voters will turn his way:

Republican John McCain hopes a last-minute shift by undecided voters could help him capture toss-up states like Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina and reverse Obama's momentum in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa.

But Indiana is no longer a lock for McCain, and neither is Montana, Georgia or North Dakota.

Obama advantages: his get out the vote effort and his cash surplus. He has more than one possible paths to victory:

The Obama camp is convinced it will hold all of the states Kerry won in 2004, including Pennsylvania, which would give the Illinois senator 252 electoral votes. He would need just 18 more electoral votes to get to the 270 required to win. Obama's campaign has been built around a strategy of setting up several paths to victory - whether it's flipping a big state like Ohio or Florida, or stitching together wins in several smaller states.

On a related note: Check out the differences in the candidates' election night plans: McCain's election night party is at the swank Arizona Biltmore hotel in Phoenix. 2,000 supporters and 1,000 others, mostly media, are expected to attend. Obama's party will be outdoors at Grant Park in Chicago. It's estimated 1 million -- or more -- will attend.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 02, 2008 (boomark / email).