Legal Commentary

SOS: The End Of The Line For Hillary?

By Big Tent Democrat

Ezra Klein thinks so:

Presuming that Hillary Clinton will remain one of, if not the, central actors in Democratic life from the year 2000 to the year 2016 displays a certain poverty of imagination about the path of Democratic politics. With every passing day, her singular political position erodes. In 2004, she would have won the nomination in a walk. By 2008, there was a new politician who better tapped into that particular moment in the party's life. By 2016, there will be many politicians like that, most of whose names we don't know. It's very hard to imagine that eight years in the future, the party will want to move back to Clinton. Indeed, if Obama fails in governance and loses in 2012, there will be a new politician articulating a theory of relevance to that failure, and that moment. If he succeeds, then the party will look to a more logical successor -- not his predecessor.

This is very faulty analysis. I'll explain why on the flip.

One thing for sure, Ezra is not suffering from a poverty of imagination in this post. The entire post seems a figment of his imagination to me.

Hillary Clinton first won elective office in 2000. Could she have won the nomination in 2004? Maybe. In 2008, she lost by a whisker to a pol who is now considered one of the greatest ever. Right now, other than Obama, Clinton is the best and most important politician in the country.

Barack Obama will dominate American politics for at least 4 years and likely and hopefully 8. Will a new dominant Democratic figure emerge in those years? Here's a question - did one emerge during the Clinton years? Hardly. A dominant REPUBLICAN figure will emerge of course as the out party will be the one where the jockeying goes on.

I think the complete opposite of Ezra - If Hillary wants to be the Dem nominee in 2016, she will be the Dem nominee in 2016. Only one person theoretically could possibly challenge her - Joe Biden. I believe it would be impossible.

Here's the thing, by joining the Obama team as SOS, Hillary actually covers her one potential weakness for 2016 - being perceived as not part of the Obama Democratic Party. Unless Obama is Jimmy Carter, that seems to me to seal the deal.

Will Hillary run in 2016? Who knows? Would she win the Presidency in 2016? Who can possibly know? But there can be no doubt that she would be almost unbeatable for the Dem nomination in 2016. Let's check back in 8 years and see who was right.

by Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 18, 2008 (boomark / email).