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Obama Needs to Beat Down Hillary

By wt

Back in college debate, there were occasionally debate rounds I went into knowing that I was at a disadvantage.

The judge was friends with my opponents' coaches, or needed the other team to win to save his/her own team, etc.

In those situations, the only way you could win over the hostile judge was to give the other team a beat down. To make it impossible for the judge to worm his way out of voting for you.

A draw was a definite loss, and a slight win was a probable loss. The beat down was the only way to win.

And that's Obama's best, and perhaps only, way to beat Hillary. He needs to crush her.

If he doesn't, he'll end up about tied with her in terms of pledged delegates, and Hillary will have a slight lead with the Superdelegates.

With that outcome, one of two things we'll happen.

1. Howard Dean will broker a deal in June.

Do you think Hillary is going to give up her only shot to be President? Or that Dean could persuade her to do so?

Do you think Hillary, leading the race with her Superdelegates, won't laugh in the face of Howard Dean for suggesting she make a deal with Obama to be his VP?

Of course not. And that makes me think the Dean option can only benefit Hillary and hurt Obama, because of how humble and magnanimous he is.

When pressured to become Hillary's VP, at his ripe young age, in order to save the party a brokered convention, he might give in.

2. Obama doesn't give in and takes to the convention.

Knowing he's ahead in pledged delegates but behind in Superdelegates, he'll have to start getting some of the Superdelegates to come his way. And maybe an Edwards instruction to his 26 delegates would also help.

But this is an inherently tricky process. A lot of loyalties are being mixed here. To the Clintons, to the Kennedys, to all factions.

If he starts attempting to persuade Hillary's delegates to come his way, you will see an explosion at the convention.

All bets will be off. She will (1) cry foul, (2) go to the mat to get Florida and Michigan to count, (3) play the Clinton legacy card to the degree she can, (4) possibly make threats about loyalty considerations.

Whoever wins that war (and I'd say it's 50/50), the general election is 8 weeks later. That seems like a bad way to go into a general election campaign. Half of the delegates to convention will feel they've been cheated.

And that's not a good outcome for Obama or Clinton. And again, I think Obama, sensing the trouble for the party, is more likely to blink in that instance, and wait another 8 years to run.

So Obama needs to focus. And there are five reasons why Hillary should be scared that she's about to be crushed.

But if there's no beat down, I don't think Obama can win this thing, or at least not without huge collateral damage to the party.

Full post as published by Expressio Unius on February 06, 2008 (boomark / email).