International Law

China?s Other Demographic Time Bomb

By Stan

The world?s third-largest economy is aging so rapidly that by 2050, there may be only two working-age people for every senior citizen, compared with 13 to one now. That increases the urgency of the government?s pledge to expand the Chinese social safety net and make retirement benefits and health care accessible to as many of its 1.3 billion residents as possible. China?s graying also requires a cultural shift as the tradition of families caring for aging relatives at home becomes more difficult. (NYT)

I have several reasons to recommend this New York Times article on the problem of China’s rapidly-aging population.

First, the issue is a bona fide priority item, along with problem areas like China’s energy needs, environmental protection, and water requirements. The topic should be brought up more often and certainly deserves more press than the latest Jackie Chan gaffe.

Second, there have been a huge number of articles written in the past couple of weeks about China’s excess male population, fallout from the One Child Policy and because of cultural preferences. However, among China’s demographic problems, the aging population is much more serious.

Third, and much less important, we are going to start seeing a lot of changes as the population ages. I’ve noticed this in the U.S. over the past 15 years or so (the U.S. and, to a much larger degree, Japan, have the same aging problems). Two recent examples: Baidu just started a new portal for seniors, and I’ve seen a noticeable uptick, beginning last year, in client interest in this demographic (e.g. retirement communities, medical devices, pharmaceuticals).

Moving forward, keep your eyes on the government’s response to the problem of health care and pensions, and expect the market for all things old folks to heat up. We’ve already seen how this works for children, for rich people, and other demos — the time of the seniors is coming quickly.

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Full post as published by China Hearsay on April 21, 2009 (boomark / email).