Legal Commentary

Obama's Texas Dilemna

By Jeralyn

The Washington Post lays out the problems for Obama in Texas. Shorter version: He still suffers from a lack of support in the Hispanic community.

It begins with John McCain, who does have Hispanic support in Texas:

The Latino community is a critical piece of any Democratic candidate's general election calculations. Against John McCain, who has championed comprehensive immigration reform to his detriment in the Republican primaries, the Democratic nominee will face an opponent who begins the general election with a credible chance of holding a solid minority of the Hispanic vote.

On to Hillary: [More...]

Their first test came in Nevada in mid-January, and Clinton carried Hispanics by more than 2 to 1. On Super Tuesday, despite greater efforts by the Obama campaign, Clinton still dominated the Hispanic vote. There were eight states with significant Latino populations, and she had sizable leads in six of them.

In California, despite the energetic efforts of Ted Kennedy, Obama once again lost by an overwhelming margin of roughly 2 to 1.

Back to Texas:

On Friday, the Texas Credit Union League released a poll conducted by the Republican firm of Public Opinion Strategies and the Democratic firm of Hamilton Campaigns. It showed that, overall, Clinton leads Obama in the state by 49 percent to 41 percent. Among Hispanics, she led as she has in other key states by a margin of 2 to 1. Among Hispanic women, the lead was more than 3 to 1.

The Post ends with some advice for Obama:

One way for Obama to put that to rest would be to win the states outright, and in Texas he could do that if he manages to cut into Clinton's Hispanic support. For all his success in the past few weeks, his weakness in the Latino community is an obvious hole in his coalition. The Obama campaign may believe he can wait to address this, but rather than avoiding the problem, he should be trying to figure out how to solve it -- beginning in the Lone Star State.

If Obama doesn't shore up his support in the Hispanic community, it could spell trouble in November.

The Post-ABC News survey suggested that, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, he may do as well among Hispanic voters as would Clinton, that Hispanics would rally around either one. But the poll also showed that McCain begins the race with what appears to be somewhat outsized support among Hispanics -- and no Democrat can afford to allow that to hold throughout a tough general election campaign.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on February 15, 2008 (boomark / email).