Legal Commentary

Understanding The Politics Of AZ SB 1070

By Big Tent Democrat

NYTimes:

A majority of the people polled, 57 percent, said the federal government should determine the laws addressing illegal immigration. But 51 percent said the Arizona law was “about right” in its approach to the problem. Thirty-six percent said it went too far and 9 percent said it did not go far enough.

Many people, Republicans and Dems alike, seize on that 51% as meaning the measure is popular and therefore good politics. It is not meaningful and is bad politics.

The reason is simple, the measure's politics must be considered from the point of view of persuadables and how they react to this law. 80% of the 51% are almost certainly rock solid GOP voters who will never vote Democrat. Most of the rest probably will not decide their vote one way or the other because of the thinking behind this legislation. But a significant amount of persuadables, most of these Latino, will turn away from the GOP permanently because of this (see Prop 187.) Conservative Michael Gerson gets it:

The conservative writers who have uncritically supported the Arizona law share something as well: in general, they have never had to appeal to a voter, much less a Hispanic voter, in their lives. They have no direct responsibility for the political wreckage they leave behind. In fact, they tend to view indifference to political and demographic reality as a kind of purity test.

But unlike, say, a conservative magazine or blog, it is the purpose of a political party to win majorities within the broad bounds of its convictions. And each time a portion of the conservative movement demonstrates this particular form of ideological purity -- in California’s Proposition 187, the 2006 House immigration debate and now Arizona -- they create resentments toward the Republican Party among Latinos that will last for generations. In all these cases, Republicans have gained little, sacrificed much, and apparently learned nothing.

There is no question in my mind that this debate is a clear loser for Republicans. Because of that, Dems should be pushing this debate, now and for the foreseeable future.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on May 04, 2010 (boomark / email).