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What Could Go Wrong in Florida?

By Aaron Street

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member Rick Hasen predicts in his Election Law Blog three potential problems if Florida goes forward with a June Mail-Vote Primary:

1. An Election Meltdown
As I have noted,"there's something especially worrisome about rolling out a new system for counting votes for the first time in a presidential contest. It is like debuting your new play straight on Broadway." Dan Tokaji has raised similar and additional administrability concerns. A meltdown could well backfire on the Democrats, making Floridians less likely to vote for a Democrat in the fall, and tarnishing even further the reputation of Florida.

2. The Specter of Vote Fraud
Any time voting takes place outside the voting booth, there is the chance of a vote buying arrangement. As I have explained, absentee ballot fraud was rampant enough for a court to void the Miami mayor's race of 1997. We can also expect that the loser of the contest will have an incentive to claim fraud as a way of trying to undermine the results, much like what may be happening with the Texas caucus right now.

3. Undermining the Ability of the DNC to Insure Order on the Primary Process
It would be quite ironic if Florida, despite having broken the rules, would get to hold a final primary that the media (and perhaps the candidates) will bill as the decisive contest to sway the superdelegates (as in, whoever can win in Florida deserves to take on John McCain in November). What incentive will this create for states in 2012 asked to abide by the Democratic party rules for the timing of primaries and caucuses?

What do you think the odds are of one or more of these problems arising if Florida Democrats go forward with their plan?

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Full post as published by The Law and Politics Blog on March 13, 2008 (boomark / email).