Family Law

Do Half of all Marriages Really End in Divorce?

By ckramer

We?ve all heard the popular statistic which seems to doom half of all of our friends, family and even our marriages to the realm of divorce, but is it true?

According to Time.com, the statistic that 50% of all marriages will end in divorce may be more myth than reality.

Part of the problem with the common saying is that it purports to explain how many marriages currently entered into will last. That problem is compounded with the vague generalities of a homogenous marriage group.

Marriage Statistics

In fact, when marriages are broken up into different categories it becomes clear that different factors can help illuminate the likelihood of success in a marriage. For example, 81% of college graduates who married after the age of 26 in the 1980s were still married 20 years later. That number drops to 65% for college graduates who married before the age of 26.

There also seems to be a trend that modern marriages may be lasting longer than marriages did in the past. In the 1970s, 23% of college graduates divorced within 10 years, but in the 1990s, only 16% divorced within 10 years.

The 50% statistic seems to be based upon young people who married without a degree. According to Time, only 49% of people in that category lasted to the 20 year mark. Even that statistic cannot account for the modern trend that marriages are actually lasting longer.

Just by reason, we can see that we can only check the status of a marriage of 20 years until 20 years from when the marriage started. This means that our statistics for marriages that make it to the 20 year mark are from marriages that occurred in 1990 or earlier.

There isn?t universal rejection of the statistic however. Sociologist Paul Amato thinks the 50% divorce rate might be reasonably accurate. Importantly, Amato does confirm that it is agreed upon that lower-income and less-educated couples divorce at a higher rate than college graduates.

Divorce and Politics

The most interesting idea from the Time article is an explanation for why this statistic seems to be universally accepted in the mainstream, despite some confusion in its academic validity.

The article points out that there is a political use for the 50% divorce statistic, by both sides. Conservatives use it to defend more marriage-friendly policies, while liberals use it in funding requests for programs that help single mothers. As long as there is a benefit for so many politicians to throw this statistic into the mainstream, we will probably keep hearing it, despite its questionable validity.

The article ends with an interesting, if depressing note. The people who divorce at the highest rate are the people in the low-income and less-educated portion, and it is also these people who have the least resources to deal with the divorce. This means that the people who have the least education and presumably the least access to adequate representation are part of the class which most frequently needs the representation.

Full post as published by The Divorce Blog on June 08, 2010 (boomark / email).