Politics

Dems Lowering Expectations for the Lame Duck Session

By Sunlight Foundation & Participatory Politics Foundation

Before the elections, congressional Democrats were talking about using the upcoming lame duck session for passing on a renewable energy standard bill, creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants that complete high school or serve in the military, setting tariffs for countries that manipulate their currency, repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and much more. But in the wake of their midterm “shellacking,” they are quickly scaling back their ambitions. Inside sources who spoke with The Hill are saying not to expect anything beyond a continuing resolution to keep the government running until the end of the year and a debate on the expiring Bush tax cuts.

An extension of unemployment insurance benefits, which are currently set to expire on Nov. 30, will likely be rolled into the CR and will probably be designed to expire again just a few months down the road. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell [R, KY] is asking Democrats to cut spending by $5 billion to $6 billion for each month they extend benefits as a condition for their support. Sen. Ben Nelson [D, NE] will vote with Republicans on this, so you can expect Democrats to need at least 2 Republicans to get them over the 60-vote filibuster hurdle. If they wait until after Thanksgiving, Rep. Mark Kirk [R, IL-10] will take over for Sen. Roland Burris [D, IL] as the junior Senator from Illinois, so the Dems would then probably need at least 3 cross over votes.

On the Bush tax cuts, it’s still looking like gridlock is the most likely outcome. Republicans are standing pretty much in lock step against decoupling the tax cuts (i.e. having separate votes on cuts below and above a certain income amount with different expiration dates for each) and, of course, they won’t go along with any plan to let the cuts for higher income people expire. Plus, the Republicans have some incentive to push the tax cut debate into the next session of Congress where they’ll have a strong House majority and a stronger presence in the Senate.

As for the hottest issue on OpenCongress, legislation to create a new tier of unemployment benefits for those who have exhausted all available weeks (S.3706), it’s looking very unlikely that anything will happen legislatively any time soon. The prevailing forces in Congress right now are for scaling unemployment benefits back, not for expanding them. Still, this is not an issue that Congress can ignore forever. Unemployment benefits are currently available for a period of two years max, and, as you can see here, we’re about two years out right now from when the unemployment rate skyrocketed as a result of the financial crisis. The rate has been steadily above 9% since early 2009, so, given that job creation isn’t outpacing job losses, the number of unemployed people reaching the end of their benefits and being left with no lifeline is set to increase sharply in the coming months.

Duck image from Thomas Hawk used under a CC license.

Full post as published by Open Congress on November 08, 2010 (boomark / email).