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It has been half a century since the present government of the Cuban Republic was established. That half century has seen great changes on the Island. It has also seen perhaps even greater changes in the United States, that turned from a de facto controller to an enemy of the regime, and which provided a safe haven for a vibrant segment of Cubans in a new land--from which they continue to prosper. All three groups have spent most of the last fifty years taunting each other.--for their mutual pleasure and profit. Each has counted on the ecesses of the others to provide substantial beneifits. Cuba has profited by the embargo--not econlomically but politically. The United States has profited as well--nurturing a paper enemy whcih could alwys be counted on to annoy without threatening. And ther Cuban emigré community had a figure vibrant enough to prevent assimilation and to cast as a demon against which to measure the success of a capitalist version of post 1959Cuba in South Florida.

But now age has produced a certain decrepitude in the traditional game play among these actors. And so a revolution a half century of existence becomes an act of bathos.

Se trataba de combinar orgullo y contención. De mostrar espíritu de victoria y sobriedad. De festejar sin alharacas. Raúl Castro diseñó un 50 aniversario de la victoria revolucionaria ajustado al tono vital del país en tiempos de crisis, tras un año de crueles ciclones. El presidente declaró que el socialismo "no ha sido ningún fracaso" y los cubanos "se sienten orgullosos de la revolución". Mientras, su hermano Fidel, el convaleciente líder que hace medio siglo entró triunfante en Santiago de Cuba, publicó en Granma una escueta felicitación.

Raúl Castro afirma que el socialismo "no ha sido ningún fracaso" en la isla, La Vanguardia, Jan. 1, 2009. And what is left to the revolution? Among other things a contonued invitaiton to dialogue with the incoming Obamana administration. "El menor de los Castro llevaba días reiterando su disposición al diálogo con Barack Obama, que por su parte ha prometido aliviar las restricciones que pesan contra los cubanoamericanos para viajar y enviar dinero a la isla." Id.

And for Fidel--the rock on which the revolution was built and sustained? "Antes del acto central, donde no podía descartarse algún otro mensaje de Fidel, toda la presencia del líder histórico en la jornada conmemorativa se limitó a su conciso escrito en la prensa, fechado el día 31 a las 7 p.m.: "Al cumplirse en pocas horas el 50 Aniversario del Triunfo, felicito a nuestro pueblo heroico". Y ya." Id.

This is an odd turn of events for an Island that has been cultiuvating a strong quartet of substitites for American largesse--the Chinese, the Iranians, the Brazilians and the Venezuelans. But in many ways, Cuba remains where it was a half century ago--"En una entrevista previa en televisión estatal, el presidente cubano dio claves de su intervención, en la que repetiría una frase de Fidel el 8 de enero del 59: "La alegría es inmensa, pero queda mucho por hacer. Quizás en adelante todo sea más difícil"." Id.

Yet, at the same time, much has changed. The populaiton is different. There are now two Cubas--one on the Island and one in South Florida. They represent two versions of the events of January 1, 1959. Both are well educated, prosperous and well integrated within their regions. Yet both are incomplete and incompatible. The next fifty years will see another round of revolutionary change. Its course is yet to be decided.

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