Intellectual Property Law

Prediction: Internet to Double in Next Decade to Two Billion Users

By IBLS Editor

While most economists and online-business people will be delighted to hear that the Internet recently passed the one-billionth user mark, Governments, Web infrastructure gurus and other analysts are busy discussing and laying plans for how to properly accommodate the next billion coming online, which is predicted to happen within the next ten years. With user percentages heading towards market saturation in the First World of Europe and the United States, the next billion users will log-on from countries like China, India, Brazil and other large places, not to mention scores of millions added from up and coming Web grids in smaller, less-prosperous states.

 The Internet passed the billion user mark sometime in 2005. The identity of that billionth person is unknown, although odds favor them being described as a 24-year-old, Shanghai woman. The rate increase of Internet growth is gaudy, making pleasing news for online marketers, as the expansion rate is 18% per annum, suggesting that the Net will expand from 1 billion to 2 billion soon. According to statistics from Morgan Stanley, 36% of Internet users are located in Asia, with 24% in Europe, but only 23% of users are in North America. The growth graph is impressive, with a sustained stage of growth being passed through now, which will eventually level off. It took 36 years for the first billion users to log on the Internet; whereas the second billion should be online by 2015, with gains of mostly Asian users; but the third billion will take a bit longer, probably not being achieved until 2040.

The Internet had only 16 million users in 1995, but by 2005 a billion, and in 2007 there are 1.25 billion users, representing 19% of the world's population. The journey to two billion users, according to Internet Law Professor Michael Geist, "will obviously have a profound effect on the network, technology, the computer software industry, access to knowledge, and our environment." As the next phase of growth will happen outside of Europe and the States, when the Web grows it will fundamentally change in terms of default language expectations, so that multi-lingual portals will become the norm in many popular sites. Postures on hot-button issues like Intellectual Property Rights, Copyright, Freedom of Online Speech, Privacy, Political Expression and Government Censure, and others, will also be modified.

Another big change coming from this demographic will be a lessening of technological expectations by those users from less-advanced countries, which is well-represented by the no-whistles-or-bells approach of the current world Internet-access project, the XO laptop, i.e. $100 laptop. High-end computers and systems will certainly be available in these areas, but will not dominate as they do in wealthier countries. A generation of sturdier and less flashy machines will be available in these spots. 

Given the lowered budgets expectations for technology, Geist states "The operating systems and software installed on those machines may also be different. Microsoft and Apple may have been the preferred choice for most of the first billion, but the next billion is far more likely to use open source software alternatives that are free and offer the chance for local customisation." Geist further adds, "Not only will the devices be different, but the next billion will employ alternate modes to access the internet. Widespread broadband may be too expensive to install in some developing communities, leading to greater reliance on wireless and satellite-based connectivity."

While the U.S. will have only 15% of the users when the Net hits two billion users, they will still own 30% of Web resources. The challenge will be for the West to continue to fight for unfettered access to information and technology, and especially Internet rights of Free Speech and Political Expression, while adapting to the increasingly multicultural, diverse, and transnational online world that is right around the corner.

Full post as published by IBLS Internet Law Blog on December 16, 2007 (boomark / email).