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College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 3

By Andis Kaulins

Week 3 College Football Games with Odds
as published at Yahoo Sports, Monday, September 8, 2008
(Numbers in parentheses are our own SPRS ratings for a team, adjusted if necessary for current season performance - adjustment are made only if there is a large discrepancy visible already between this year and last)

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Rutgers is favored at home by 4 1/2 points North Carolina.
Rutgers self-destructed at home against Fresno State in Week 1 so that no one knows how bad the team actually is this year. It is most certainly not as good as last year when it had an SPRS rating of -0.4, otherwise the Scarlet Knights would be strong favorites. North Carolina nearly lost to McNeese State (-2.7). The Tar Heels (-2.0) and Fresno State (-1.9) had almost identical SPRS final ratings last season. The Rutgers 1.6 (-2.0 - -0.4) rating advantage of last year over North Carolina would normally mean 1.6 x 9 points = 14 points. Since Rutgers is clearly weaker, perhaps by a TD, this year, we call it Rutgers 31 North Carolina 24.

Friday, September 12, 2008

South Florida (-0.4) is favored at home by 3 1/2 points over Kansas (+0.8).
The Jayhawks have a 1.2 point rating advantage (-0.4 to +0.8) over the Bulls. Since each 1 point rating difference in the SPRS football rating system is equal to 9 points on the scoreboard, 1.2 x 9 = 11 points on the scoreboard, minus 3 points for home field advantage = 8 points. We call it for Kansas 31-23.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Alabama (-1.5) is favored at home by 27 1/2 points over Western Kentucky (-3.3).
1.8 x 9 = 16 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 19 points. We call it 40-21 for Alabama.

Arizona (-1.1) is favored on the road by 10 points at New Mexico (-1.6).
0.5 (-1.6 - -1.1) x 9 = 5 points advantage to Arizona minus 3 points home field advantage for the Lobos = a 2 point advantage to Arizona under SPRS. Arizona lost at home to the Lobos 29-27 last year, but the Wildcats appear to have a much stronger team this year and the Lobos a substantially weaker team, perhaps equal to one rating point = 9 scoring points. We call it for Arizona 35-24.

Arizona State (-0.6) is favored at home by 22 points over UNLV (-3.7).
3.1 rating difference (-3.7 - -0.6) x 9 = 28 points + 3 points home field advantage = 31 points
We call it for Arizona State 45-14.

Arkansas State (-3.5) is favored at home by 1 1/2 points over Southern Miss (-3.4).
Ordinarily, SPRS ratings would give Arkansas State a 3 point home advantage since the teams are otherwise nearly equal by last year's performance and SPRS ratings. Arkansas State appears to be much improved this year, judging by its first two games, however, so that we improve the Arkansas rating by 1 point (= 9 scoring points) and call it 35-23 for Arkansas State.

Auburn (-0.7) is favored on the road by 10 1/2 at Mississippi State (-1.9).
1.2 rating difference x 9 = 11 points for Auburn minus 3 points for the Mississippi State home field advantage = 8 points. We call it 31-23 for Auburn.

Ball State (-3.1) is favored on the road by 7 at Akron (-4.0).
0.9 rating difference x 9 = 8.1 points minus 3 points for home field advantage = 5 points. We call it 35-30 for Ball State.

Boise State (-1.7) is favored at home by 15 over Bowling Green (-3.3).
1.6 rating difference x 9 = 14 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 17 points. We call the win for Boise State 38-21.

Brigham Young (-0.2) is favored at home by 9 over UCLA (-1.4).
By last year's SPRS there is a 1.2 rating difference x 9 =11 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 14 points advantage for BYU. Last year, BYU blocked a last second field goal by UCLA to win the Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl 17-16, after losing to the Bruins in the regular season 27-17. BYU looks weaker this year and UCLA, with a new head coach, and by virtue of its win over Tennessee, looks stronger. We call it 28-24 for UCLA.

Buffalo (-4.0) is favored at home by 6 over Temple (-4.6).
Both Buffalo and Temple are much improved. -0.6 x 9 = 5 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 8 points. We call it for Buffalo 31-23.

California (-0.5) is favored on the road by 14 at Maryland (-2.1).
Maryland just lost to Middle Tennessee (-3.4) while Cal is 2-0. An SPRS rating difference of 1.6 x 9 = 14 points minus the 3-point Maryland home field advantage = 11 points. We think that Cal looks like a top 10 team right now and should have better rating, so that we call it California 45-24 over Maryland.

Central Michigan (-2.8) is favored on the road by 3 1/2 at Ohio (-3.8).
Ohio put up a valiant battle against Ohio State only to lose 26-14 last week whereas Central Michigan was blown out by Georgia 56-17. By SPRS, Central Michigan has a 1 point rating advantage = 9 points minus the 3 point home field advantage of Ohio, which would normally make Central Michigan a 6-point favorite. We can not see going against the home team here and call it 31-30 for Ohio.

Clemson (-0.3) is favored at home by 18 1/2 over North Carolina State (-2.4).
A rating difference of 2.1 x 9 = 19 scoring points plus 3 points home field advantage = 22 points. Our call is 35-13 for Clemson.

Connecticut (-1.9) is favored at home by 12 1/2 over Virginia (-1.3).
A rating difference of 0.6 x 9 = 5 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 2 points. Our call is 26-24 for Virginia.

Duke (-4.2) is favored at home by 2 1/2 over Navy (-2.9).
The Blue Devils are improved this year and Navy is weaker, but we find it hard to pick Duke here. 1.3 rating difference x 9 = 12 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 points. Our call is 31-22 for Navy.

East Carolina (-2.3) is favored on the road by 13 at Tulane (-4.5).
In its last three games, East Carolina has beaten ranked teams, whereas Tulane put on a good show against Alabama last week, losing only 20-6. By rating differences, 2.2 x9 = 20 points minus 3 points for home field advantage = 17 points, so our call is East Carolina 31-14.

Eastern Michigan (-5.1) is favored at home by 1 over Toledo (-4.0).
1.1 point rating difference x 9 = 10 points on the scoreboard minus 3 points home field advantage = 7 points. We call it 42-35 for Toledo.

Georgia (+0.3) is favored on the road by 8 at South Carolina (-1.2).
South Carolina has failed to get its offense going whereas the Georgia offense is rolling. A 1.5 point rating difference x 9 = 14 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 11 points.
We call it 28-17 for Georgia.

Houston (-2.7) is favored at home by 6 over Air Force (-1.4).
Air Force is not allowing its opponents to see the ball much more than 20 minutes per game while the Air Force ground attack swallows up all the time. A rating difference of 1.3 x 9 = 12 points minus Houston's 3-point home field advantage = 9 points. We call the game for Air Force 30-21.

Illinois (-0.6) is favored at home by 24 1/2 over Louisiana-Lafayette (-3.4).
A rating difference of 2.8 x 9 = 25 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 28 points. We call it 45-17 for Illinois.

Iowa (-2.4) is favored at home by 12 1/2 over Iowa State (-3.7).
A rating difference of 1.3 x 9 = 12 points plus 3 points home field advantage = 15 points. Last year Iowa lost at Iowa State 15-13 and we think the game between these two Iowa arch rivals will stay close. We call it for Iowa 30-27.

Kentucky (-0.9) is favored at home by 16 1/2 over Middle Tennessee (-3.4).
A rating difference of 2.5 x 9 = 23 points plus 3 points as home team = 26 points. We call it 40-14 for Kentucky.

LSU (+0.9) is favored at home by 42 over North Texas (-5.7).
A rating difference of 6.5 x 9 = 59 points plus 3 points as home team = 62 points, nearly off the charts. We call it 69-7 for LSU.

Marshall (-3.5) is favored at home by 4 over Memphis (-4.3).
A rating difference of 0.8 x 9 = 7 points plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 10 points. We call it Marshall 31-21 over Memphis.

Michigan (-0.9) is favored on the road by 1 at Notre Dame (-3.4).
The team that the Wolverines just beat 16-6, Miami of Ohio, has a rating of -3.1, so that the Fighting Irish rank worse than that. A rating difference of 2.5 x 9 = 23 points minus 3 points for the Notre Dame home field advantage leaves a 20 point spread under normal circumstances. However, Michigan under new head coach Rodriguez is far from last year's form, so that we call this game by 13 points, 30-17.

Michigan State (-1.4) is favored at home by 17 over Florida Atlantic (-2.2).
A rating difference of 0.8 x 9 = 7 points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 10 points.
We call it 37-27 for the Spartans.

Missouri (+0.4) is favored at home by 26 1/2 over Nevada (-3.0).
A rating difference of 3.4 x 9 = 31 points plus 3 points for the home team advantage = 34 points. We call it 51-17 for Missouri.

Nebraska (-1.5) is favored at home by 25 1/2 over New Mexico State (-5.1).
The Huskers have been a disappointment to us this year because the game results do not go beyond what one would expect from last year's statistics, so that the many changes made in Huskerland have not yet manifested themselves that visibly on the playing field. A rating difference of 3.6 x 9 = 32 points plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 35 points. We call it 52-17 for the Cornhuskers.

Oklahoma (+0.8) is favored on the road by 20 at Washington (-2.6).
A rating difference of 3.4 x 9 = 31 points minus the 3 point advantage for the home team = 28 points. We call the game 45-17 for the Sooners.

Oregon (-0.2) is favored on the road by 7 at Purdue (-1.7).
A rating difference of 1.5 x 9 = 14 points minus 3 points for the home team advantage = 11 points. We call it 42-31 for Oregon, although we think Oregon could be stronger than that this year.

Oregon State (-0.7) is favored at home by 11 1/2 over Hawaii (-0.1).
These are two teams to which last year's SPRS ratings have little direct relevance, since both teams are substantially weaker this year, both probably worth a rating around -2.5. Oregon State has already lost to Stanford and to Penn State. Hawaii was steamrolled by Florida. We call it 38-35 for Oregon State by virtue of the 3-point home team advantage.

Penn State (-0.7) is favored on the road by 26 1/2 at Syracuse (-4.3).
The Nittany Lions look very strong at this point in the season. A rating difference of 3.6 x 9 = 32 points minus the Orange home field advantage = 29 points. We call it for Penn State 42-13.

San Jose State (-3.5) is favored at home by 6 over San Diego State (-3.6).
These teams should be pretty even. We give the call 31-27 to San Jose State primarily for the home field advantage.

TCU (-1.7) is favored at home by 12 over Stanford (-3.3).
Stanford has a tough schedule and it is difficult to see how they could beat TCU. A rating difference of 1.6 x 9 = 14 points plus the home field advantage = 17 points. However, perhaps Stanford has a chance in this game. As a biased Stanford alum, we call it 31-30 for the Cardinal.

Tennessee (-0.8) is favored at home by 29 1/2 over UAB (-5.4).
After a heartbreaking loss to UCLA, the Vols will be ready to go. A rating difference of 4.6 x 9 =
41 points plus the home edge of 3 points = 44 points. We call it 58-14 for Tennessee.

Texas (-0.1) is favored at home by 23 1/2 over Arkansas (+0.1).
Due to coaching changes, the Razorbacks are in a transition period where the game results are far removed from the talent available to the team. Predicting the result for games involving Arkansas is thus very difficult, as near losses to much weaker teams in the first two games do not give any cause to have much confidence in the Arkansas football team this year. However, the Texas-Arkansas rivalry has always been a heated one, so that we call it close 38-24 for the Longhorns.

Texas Tech (+0.2) is favored at home by 36 1/2 over Southern Methodist (-5.2).
The Red Raiders have not been impressive in their first two games. A rating difference of 5.4 x 9 = 49 points plus the home team advantage = 52 points. We call the game 59-7 for Texas Tech.

USC (+0.9) is favored at home by 10 1/2 over Ohio State (+1.2).
This is obviously the game of the day in college football. Based on the 52-7 USC win over a very good Virginia team combined with the Buckeyes struggle to win against Ohio, the Trojans are prohibitive favorites to win this game, which we call 35-21 for Southern Cal.

Utah (-1.4) is favored on the road by 23 1/2 at Utah State (-5.1).
The Aggies are coming off a thumping 66-24 loss to Oregon, but will probably not be beaten that badly by the Utes. A rating difference of 3.7 x 9 = 33 points plus the 3-point home team advantage = 36 points. We call it 49-13 for Utah.

Vanderbilt (-2.0) is favored at home by 7 over Rice (-5.5).
A rating difference of 3.5 x 9 = 32 points plus 3 points as home team = 35 points. Vandy had less trouble beating Miami of Ohio than Michigan did, and sent South Carolina packing. But traditional pushover Rice has beaten SMU and Memphis. Based on the current season, it looks to us like Vanderbilt is about 2 rating points better than Rice, i.e. 18 points plus the home team advantage = 21 points. We call it 42-21 for Vandy.

Virginia Tech -0.3 is favored at home by 7 over Georgia Tech (-1.7).
A rating difference of 1.4 x 9 = 13 points plus 3 points for home team advantage = 16 points. However, the Hokies have a weak offense and the Yellow Jackets have a very stingy defense, so that the game promises to be much closer than that. We call it 20-17 for Virginia Tech.

Washington State (-1.5) is favored on the road by 2 1/2 at Baylor (-4.0).
A rating difference of 2.5 x 9 = 23 points minus the home team advantage = 20 points. However, both teams are changed this season so the game could be much closer than that. The Cougars have already been thumped handily by Oklahoma State and Cal and are picked to finish last in the Pac 10. Baylor has a new head coach and is moving upward. We call it for Baylor 31-30.

Western Michigan (-4.0) is favored on the road by 8 at Idaho (-5.4).
A rating difference of 1.4 x 9 = 13 points minus the home team advantage of 3 = 10 points. We call it for Western Michigan 34-24.

Wisconsin (-1.6) is favored on the road by 1 at Fresno State (-1.9).
A rating difference of 0.3 x 9 = 3 points minus the home team advantage makes this game a dead even tossup. We go with the home team and call it 35-34 for Fresno State.

OTHER GAMES (without odds)

Southern Illinois (-2.5) at Northwestern (-2.6).
This game looks even, so we give the edge to the home team and call it for Northwestern 31-30.

Montana State (-3.6) at Minnesota (-4.5)
Montana State got annihilated by Kansas State 69-10 last week, while Minnesota, 1-11 last year under then first year coach Tim Brewster, has won their first two games this year, the last surprisingly 42-17 over Bowling Green. In spite of the fact that SPRS would favor Montana State (0.9 x 9 = 8 points minus 3 points for home team advantage = 5 points), we call this game for the Gophers 34-33.

Delaware State (-5.3) at Kent State (-4.3)
A rating difference of 1.0 x 9 = 9 points plus 3 points home team advantage = 12 points. We call it Kent State 33-21 over Delaware State.

Charleston Southern (not rated) at Miami of Ohio (-3.1)
Wofford, also rated -3.1, beat Charleston Southern 41-23. We similarly call the game here for Miami of Ohio 39-21.

North Dakota State (-1.4) at Wyoming (-2.7)
A rating difference of 1.3 x 9 =12 points minus the 3-point home team advantage = 9 points. We call it for North Dakota State 23-14.

Chattanooga (-4.8) at Florida State (-1.3)
A rating difference of 3.5 x 9 = 32 points plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 35 points.
We call it for Florida State 56-21.

Samford (not rated) at Mississippi (-2.3)
We call it 51-7 for Mississippi.

Alabama A&M (-4.8) at Louisiana-Monroe (-3.2)
A rating difference of 1.6 x 9 = 14 points plus 3 points for the home team advantage = 17 points.
We call it for Louisiana Monroe 34-17.

Alcorn State (not rated) at Troy (-1.8)
We call it 56-7 for Troy.

New Hampshire (-3.5) at Rhode Island (-5.9)
A rating difference of 2.4 x 9 = 22 points plus 3 points for the home team advantage = 25 points.
We call it 45-20 for New Hampshire.

Furman (-3.9) at Colgate (-5.0)
A rating difference of 1.1 x 9 = 10 points minus 3 points for the home team advantage = 7 points. We call it 28-21 for Furman.

Fordham (-5.8) at Dayton (-4.4)
A rating difference of 1.4 x 9 = 13 points plus 3 points for the home team advantage = 16 points.
We call it 40-24 for Dayton.

Wisconsin La-Crosse (not rated) at North Dakota (-1.8)
We call it 52-7 for North Dakota.

Towson (-5.2) at Richmond (-2.5)
A rating difference of 2.7 x 9 points = 24 points plus 3 points for home field advantage = 27 points. We call it for Richmond 44-17.

Grambling State (-4.7) at Northwestern State, Louisiana (-6.0)
A rating difference of 1.3 x 9 points = 12 points minus 3 points for the home team advantage = 9 points. We call it 30-21 for Grambling State.

Southern Utah (-5.7) at Montana (-3.7)
A rating difference of 2.0 x 9 points = 18 points plus 3 points for the home team advantage = 21 points. We call it 35-14 for Montana.

Lehigh (-5.7) at Villanova (-3.3)
A rating difference of 2.4 x 9 points = 22 points plus 3 points for the home team advantage = 25 points. We call it 45-20 for Villanova.

Massachusetts (-1.5) at James Madison (-2.2)
A rating difference of 0.7 x 9 points = 6 points minus 3 points for the home team advantage = 3 points. We call it 24-21 for UMass.

North Carolina Central (not rated) at Morgan State (-5.8)
We call it 31-17 for Morgan State.

Central State (not rated) at Youngstown State (-3.6)
How good is Ohio State? They beat Youngstown State 43-0 while one week later South Dakota State beat Youngstown State 40-7. This week Youngstown State faces a weaker opponent and should prevail. We call it for Youngstown State against Central State 44-7.

Southern Oregon (not rated) at Sacramento State (-5.4)
We call it for Sacramento State 34-24.

West Chester at Delaware (-2.5)
We call it for Delaware 54-7.

Northeastern (-4.9) at Georgia Southern (-3.1)
1.8 x 9 = 16 +3 = 19. We call it 40-21 for Georgia Southern.

Stony Brook (-5.1) at Maine (-4.9)
0.2 x 9 = 2 +3 = 5 points. We call it 35-30 for Maine.

Morehead State (not rated) at Eastern Kentucky (-4.5)
We call it 37-14 for Eastern Kentucky.

Presbyterian (-6.1) at Elon (-3.6)
2.5 x 9 = 23 points +3 = 26 points. We call it 40-14 for Elon.

Howard (not rated) at Hampton (-6.0)
We call it 21-10 for Hampton.

Liberty (-3.5) at Western Carolina (-5.8)
2.3 x 9 = 21 points - 3 = 18 points.
We call it 38-20 for Liberty.

Illinois State (-5.1) at Murray State (not rated)
We call it 33-13 for Illinois State.

Central Arkansas (-4.7) at Arkansas-Pine Bluff (not rated)
We call it 30-16 for Central Arkansas.

Gardner-Webb (-4.4) at Austin Peay (not ranked)
We call it for Gardner-Webb 41-21.

Indiana State (not rated) at Eastern Illinois (-5.2).
We call it 38-17 for Eastern Illinois.

Albany (-5.5) at Hofstra (-3.1)
A rating difference of 2.4 x 9 = 22 points plus 3 points = 25 points.
We call it 38-13 for Hofstra.

Prairie View A&M (-5.6) at Sam Houston State (-4.2)
A rating difference of 1.4 x 9 = 13 points plus 3 points = 16 points.
We call it for Sam Houston State 37-21.

South Dakota (-2.5) at Southeastern Louisiana (-5.8)
A rating difference of 3.3 x 9 = 30 points minus 3 points = 27 points.
We call it for South Dakota 41-14.

Western Illinois (-3.3) at South Dakota State (-3.3)
On the basis of the home field advantage, we call it for South Dakota State 33-30.

Mississippi Valley State (not rated) at Southern University (-5.2)
We call it 37-17 for Southern University.

Jackson State (-4.4) at Tennessee State (-5.9)
1.5 x 9 =14 points - 3 = 11 points.
We call it for Jackson State 38-27.

Alcorn State (not rated) at Troy (-1.8)
We call it for Troy 51-7.

Virginia Military (not rated) at William & Mary (-4.0)
We call it for William & Mary 34-7.

Missouri State (not rated) at Oklahoma State (-0.9).
We call it for Oklahoma State 73-7.

Cal Poly (-3.7) at McNeese State (-2.7)
A rating difference of 1.0 x 9 = points plus 3 points home team advantage = 12 points. We call it for McNeese State 39-27.

Dixie State (not rated) at Weber State (-4.4)
We call it for Weber State 28-10.

Portland State (-5.2) at UC Davis (-4.8)
A rating difference of 1.4 x 9 points = 13 points plus 3 points = 16 points. We call it for UC Davis 36-20.

Grand Valley State (-1.0) at Saginaw Valley (-2.8)
A rating difference of 1.8 x 9 points = 16 points minus 3 points = 13 points. We call it for Grand Valley 34-21.

Missouri Western (-3.4) at Northwest Missouri State (-1.0)
A rating difference of 2.4 x 9 points = 22 points plus 3 points = 25 points. We call it for Northwest Missouri State 45-20.

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 08, 2008 (boomark / email).