Legal Commentary

College Football Game Predictions and Results - 2008 Season - Week 5

By Andis Kaulins

The Tulane Green Wave (New Orleans, Louisiana) (4.6, 4.3, SoS=11) is favored at home by 17 points over the Southern Methodist (SMU) Mustangs (Dallas, Texas) (5.5, 6.7, SoS=25). We calculate a current total 1.8 SPRS rating point advantage for Tulane, so that 1.8 x 9 = 16 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 33-14 for Tulane.
Result:

The USC Trojans (6.5, 3.3, SoS=5), Los Angeles, California, are favored on the road by 23 1/2 points over the Oregon State Beavers (5.5, 5.2, SoS=61), Corvallis, Oregon. Southern Cal currently leads the nation in net yards per play allowed on defense with 3.3. Our current rating calculation makes USC 4.3 rating points better than Oregon State. 4.3 x 9 = 39 points minus the 3 point home field advantage for Oregon State = 36 points.
Our call: 45-9 for USC.
Result:

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (Cookeville, Tennessee) at Central Methodist Eagles Fayette, Missouri.
Our call: 49-7 for the Golden Eagles.
Result:

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (Itta Bena, Mississippi) at Alabama State Hornets (Montgomery, Alabama).
These teams appear to be about even, so we go with the home team.
Our call: 30-27 for Alabama State.
Result:

Friday, September 26, 2008

The Louisville Cardinals (5.4, 4.2, SoS=21) (Louisville, Kentucky) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Connecticut Huskies (5.9, 4.5, SoS=63) (Storrs, Connecticut). The SPRS ratings last year had these two teams even, and a calculation of the current rating gives Louisville a .7 rating point advantage = .7 x 9 = 6 scoring points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 points. Through the Ryder Cup in Louisville, the city is on a sports high, and we give the nod to the Cardinals by 9.
Our call: 30-21 for Louisville.
Result:

Hofstra (Long Island, New York) at Stony Brook (Long Island, New York).
Stony Brook disappointed against Brown last week, being held to only 7 first downs.
Our call: 24-9 for Hofstra.
Result:

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Auburn (5.0, 3.9, SoS=72) (Auburn, Alabama) is favored at home by 6 points over Tennessee (5.6, 4.3, SoS=133) (Knoxville, Tennessee). Our current rating calculation puts Auburn at a 1.6 point rating advantage x 9 = 14 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 17 scoreboard points.
Our call: 31-14 for Auburn.
Result:

The Ball State Cardinals (7.4, 5.5, SoS=102) (Muncie, Indiana) are favored at home by 17 points over the Kent State Golden Flashes (5.6, 6.3, SoS=134) (Kent, Ohio). The current SPRS rating calculation makes Ball State 3.8 rating points better than Kent State x 9 = 34 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage = 37 scoreboard points.
Our call: 51-14 for Ball State.
Result:

The Bowling Green State University Falcons (4.5, 5.3, SoS=1) (Bowling Green, Ohio) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Wyoming Cowboys (4.2, 4.8, SoS=75) (Laramie, Wyoming). The current SPRS ratings calculation makes Bowling Green 7 points better minus the 3-point home field advantage for the Cowboys = 4 scoreboard points.
Our call: 24-20 for Bowling Green.
Result:

The California Bears (6.7, 4.1, SoS=104) (Berkeley, California) are favored at home by 25 points over the Colorado State Rams (5.5, 5.8, SoS=145) (Fort Collins, Colorado). The current SPRS rating for Cal is 3.7 rating points better than the Rams x 9 = 24 scoreboard points plus the 3-point home advantage = 27 scoreboard points.
Our call: 41-14 for Cal.
Result:

The Central Michigan Chippewas (5.3, 6.5, SoS=45) (Mount Pleasant, Michigan) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Buffalo Bulls (State University of New York at Buffalo)(5.6, 6.1, SoS=29) (Buffalo, New York). The current SPRS rating for Buffalo is .7 rating points x 9 = 6 points better than that of the Chippewas minus the home field advantage makes Buffalo our favorite by 3 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Buffalo.
Result:

The Cincinnati Bearcats (6.2, 5.4, SoS=136) (Cincinnati, Ohio) are favored on the road by 10 points over the Akron Zips (5.8, 5.6, SoS= 36) (Akron, Ohio). Akron lost by 21 to then 13th-ranked Wisconsin and Cincinnati lost by 26 to then 4th-ranked Oklahoma. That makes both teams about even.
Our call: 31-30 for Cincinnati.
Result:

The Clemson Tigers (6.4, 4.8, SoS=69) (Clemson, South Carolina) are favored at home by 11 1/2 points over the University of Maryland Terrapins (6.2, 5.2, SoS=155) (College Park, Maryland).
Our call: 34-20 for Clemson.
Result:

The Duke Blue Devils (5.1, 5.6, SoS=35) (Durham, North Carolina) are favored at home by 7 points over the Virginia Cavaliers (3.8, 6.1, SoS=2) (Charlottesville, Virginia). Virginia has no offense to speak of this year and has a host of serious problems.
Our call: 34-21 for Duke.
Result:

The East Carolina Pirates (5.6, 4.6, SoS=17) (Greenville, North Carolina) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the Houston Cougars (6.4, 6.1, SoS=120) (Houston, Texas). The Pirates fell to NC State last week but should rebound well at home against the Cougars.
Our call: 38-20 for East Carolina.
Result:

The Florida Gators (5.8, 3.5, SoS=147) (Gainesville, Florida) are favored at home by 23 1/2 points over Mississippi Rebels (6.5, 4.3, SoS=46) (Oxford, Mississippi). Our ratings make Florida about a 1.2 rating point favorite x 9 = 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 14 scoreboard points.
Our call: 34-20 for Florida.
Result:

The Florida State Seminoles (6.7, 3.5, SoS=89) (Tallahassee, Florida) are favored at home by 6 points over the Colorado Buffaloes (5.0, 4.7, SoS=84) (Boulder, Colorado). The Seminoles turned the ball over 7 times against Wake Forest last week (5 interceptions and 2 fumbles), as the offense failed to score a TD and the Seminoles lost ignominiously at home 12-3, completing only 12 of 36 passes. On paper, Florida State should win easily, also because of a very strong defense, but the QBs are perhaps weak. Moreover, the Buffs have allowed no more yards passing this year than Wake Forest, so that Florida State may be in for another rough day through the air. Last year Florida State won 16-6 at Colorado, but the Buffs are better this year, coming off a 17-14 win over then 21st-ranked West Virginia, but did not have to do much pass defense. This is a very tough game to call as far as any prognosticated final score is concerned. Too many ifs. We go with the home team and assume they will get back on track.
Our call: 24-17 for Florida State.
Result:

The Fresno State Bulldogs (6.3, 5.6, SoS=69) (Fresno, California) are favored on the road by 6 1/2 points over the UCLA Bruins (3.8, 5.4, SoS=58) (Los Angeles, California). UCLA ranks 118th out of 120 teams in Division I-A FBS in terms of yards per play on offense. You can not win if you can not score. Here is some related trivia. UCLA is located in Westwood which adjoins the "platinum triangle" of Beverly Hills, Holmby Hills and Bel Air, where a plan for a community of grandiose estates was first formulated by merchant Arthur Letts Sr., who owned a good share of the former Wolfskill Farm, from which UCLA and the residential communities were carved. Arthur Letts Jr. built a personal mansion which today is better known as the Playboy mansion of Hugh Heffner. The idea of grand estates on the Letts property was a full success and many mansions have served as homes to world famous Hollywood personalities as also to merchants and other famous personages, such as former US Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. The West Gate of Bel Air at Bellagio Road and Sunset Boulevard is opposite an entrance for UCLA. In spite of all that pomp and circumstance, the team from Fresno appears to hold the edge in this football game, with an SPRS rating that suggests about a 2 TD victory minus the UCLA home field advantage.
Our call: 28-17 for Fresno State
Result:

The University of Georgia Bulldogs (Dogs) (7.1, 4.4, SoS=32) (Athens, Georgia) are favored at home by 6 points over the University of Alabama Crimson Tide (5.9, 3.8, SoS=40) (, ) (Tuscaloosa, Alabama). For this season, Georgia has a .7 SPRS rating advantage, which translates into 6 points plus the 3-point home field advantage = 9 scoreboard points.
Our call: 26-17 for Georgia.
Result:

The Iowa Hawkeyes (5.9, 4.1, SoS=57) (Iowa City (Coralville), Iowa) are favored at home by 8 points over the Northwestern Wildcats (5.2, 4.2, SoS=83) (Evanston, Illinois). The stats clearly favor Iowa by a rating advantage of about 9 scoreboard points plus 3 points home field advantage = 12 scoreboard points.
Our call: 29-17 for Iowa.
Result:

The Kansas State Wildcats (6.5, 4.5, SoS=108) (Manhattan, Kansas) are favored at home by 20 points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (ULL) (6.4, 6.2, SoS=94) (Lafayette, Louisiana). By SPRS rating Kansas State is about a 16-point favorite plus 3-point home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Kansas State.
Result:

The Kentucky Wildcats (4.7, 4.1, SoS=97) (Lexington, Kentucky) are favored at home by 22 1/2 points over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4.6, 5.5, SoS=124) (Bowling Green, Kentucky). Current SPRS ratings favor Kentucky by 19 points plus the home field advantage = 22 points.
Our call: 29-7 for Kentucky.
Result:

The Louisiana State (LSU) Tigers (6.6, 4.0, SoS=121) (Baton Rouge, Louisiana) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the Mississippi State University Bulldogs (4.6, 4.9, SoS=55) (Starkville, Mississippi). By current SPRS ratings, LSU has about a 20-point scoreboard advantage, plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 23 points.
Our call: 40-17 for LSU.
Result:

The opening line for the Memphis Tigers (5.8, 6.2, SoS=100) (Memphis, Tennessee) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7.5, 4.5, SoS=158) (Jonesboro, Arkansas) was zero. If Memphis can beat this Arkansas State team, it would be a surprise to this prognosticator, who sees an exceptional team at Jonesboro this year, beating Texas A&M to start out the season.
By SPRS ratings, Arkansas State looks like a 3 TD favorite, minus the Memphis home field advantage = 18 points.
Our call: 38-20 for Arkansas State.
Result:

The Miami, Florida Hurricanes (5.3, 4.6, SoS=135) (Miami, Florida) are favored at home by 7 points over the North Carolina Tar Heels (6.1, 4.9, SoS=68) (Chapel Hill, North Carolina). By SPRS ratings, North Carolina looks like the favorite by 11 points minus the Miami 3-point home field advantage = 8 points.
Our call: 31-23 for North Carolina.
Result:

The Michigan State Spartans (5.2, 5.2, SoS=119) (East Lansing, Michigan) are favored on the road by 9 points over the Indiana Hoosiers (6.0, 4.9, SoS=113) (Bloomington, Indiana). By SPRS ratings, Indiana is favored by 11 points plus the 3-point home field advantage for Indiana = 14 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Indiana.
Result:

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (7.0, 4.9, SoS=27) (Lincoln, Nebraska) are favored at home by 6 1/2 points over the Virginia Tech (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) Hokies (4.5, 5.5, SoS=14) (Blacksburg, Virginia). Even though the Huskers are undefeated this year, as written by Robin Washut at Huskers Illustrated, the Huskers give average grade after 3 games. Virginia Tech this year - as last year - has been weak offensively and not as good on defense as is their custom, so that they are averaging 272 yards per game on offense and giving up 328 yards per game on defense, so that it is remarkable that they have achieved their current 3-1 record against some good opposition. On paper, when comparing offensive and defensive yards per play stats, Nebraska has an SPRS 3.1 rating advantage x 9 = 28 points plus the 3-point home team advantage = 31 scoreboard points. Unless the Husker offense suddenly hits new highs, however, we look for a potentially closer game than that and, as a Husker alum, remain worried if the Huskers are really good enough to win this game, but we will, for now, go with the stats in calling the game score.
Our call: 38-7 for Nebraska.
Result:

The New Mexico Lobos (4.7., 5.3, SoS=45) (Albuquerque, New Mexico) are favored on the road by 4 points over the New Mexico State Aggies (5.2., 6.5, SoS=20) (Las Cruces, New Mexico). By SPRS ratings, these teams are even this year. Last year New Mexico won at home 44-34. The Aggies have a weak defense which should not hurt them that much against the subpar offense of the Lobos. We go with the home team.
Our call: 31-30 for New Mexico State.
Result:

The Northern Illinois University Huskies (6.4, 5.0, SoS=80) (DeKalb, Illinois) are favored on the road by 6 points over the Eastern Michigan Eagles (5.9, 5.9, SoS=154) (Ypsilanti, Michigan). Last year, SPRS ranked these two teams even, and Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois on the road 21-19. This year, Northern Illinois would appear to have the stronger team.
Our call: 34-21 for Northern Illinois.
Result:

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4.6, 5.1, SoS=122) (Notre Dame (South Bend), Indiana) are favored at home by 2 1/2 points over the Purdue Boilermakers (5.4, 5.1, SoS=70) (West Lafayette, Indiana). Last year the Irish lost at Purdue 33-19 and the current season stats would make Purdue the favorite again this year due to the weakness of the Fighting Irish offense.
Our call: 31-24 for Purdue.
Result:

The Ohio State Buckeyes (4.8, 4.3, SoS=47) (Columbus, Ohio) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Minnesota Gophers (6.1, 5.2, SoS=99) (Twin Cities, Minnesota). We do not think the Buckeye offense is good enough to warrant such a large spread. By SPRS, the Buckeyes do not have much more than 3 points of a home field advantage.
Our call: 24-21 for Ohio State.
Result:

The Oklahoma Sooners (7.0, 3.6, SoS=129) (Norman, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 17 1/2 points over the Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs (5.3, 3.4, SoS=110) (Fort Worth, Texas). By SPRS ratings, Oklahoma has a 1.3 rating advantage x 9 = 12 points plus 3 points for the home field = 15 points.
Our call: 28-13 for Oklahoma.
Result:

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (7.9, 4.2, SoS=181) (Stillwater, Oklahoma) are favored at home by 16 1/2 points over the Troy Trojans (5.7, 3.5, SoS=127) (Troy, Alabama). We think that Troy will be able to slow down the Cowboy offense a bit, as the current SPRS ratings give Oklahoma State a 9-point edge plus the 3-point home field advantage = 12 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Oklahoma State.
Result:

The Oregon University Ducks (6.4, 4.5, SoS=12) (Eugene, Oregon) are favored on the road by 19 1/2 points over the Washington State Cougars (4.6, 6.7, SoS=91) (Pullman, Washington). In the Oregon loss to Boise State, 37-32, after a concussion to the starting QB and an ineffectual injury-hampered replacement, freshman Darron Thomas had his redshirt pulled and led the Ducks from a 37-13 4th quarter deficit to a near win. If that performance is indicative that Thomas may start at QB and if he continues to play like that, Oregon may even become dangerous for USC. Hence, we look for a big offensive showing against the Cougars, as the SPRS ratings make the Ducks about a 6 to 7 TD favorite.
Our call: 52-7 for Oregon.
Result:

The Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) Nittany Lions (7.4, 3.5, SoS=132) (State College, Pennsylvania) are favored at home by 14 points over the Illinois University Fighting Illini (6.2, 5.4, SoS=67) (Urbana-Champaign, Illinois). In the Big 10, Ohio State has gotten all the hype but this Penn State team appears to be extremely strong. By SPRS ratings, Penn State is a 23-point favorite plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 26 points.
Our call: 40-14 for Penn State.
Result:

The Pittsburgh Panthers (4.7, 4.6, SoS=11) (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Syracuse Orange (4.9, 6.5, SoS=42) (Syracuse, New York). The Orange football fortunes have fallen on hard times. SPRS gives Pittsburgh a 2.6 rating advantage x 9 = 23 points minus the 3-point home field advantage = 20 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Pittsburgh.
Result:

The Rice University Owls (5.4, 6.8, SoS=27) (Houston, Texas) are favored at home by 19 points over the University of North Texas Mean Green (4.4, 6.8, SoS=22) (Denton, Texas). By SPRS, Rice has an advantage of about 11 points plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 14 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Rice.
Result:

The San Diego State Aztecs (4.6, 5.9, SoS=74) (San Diego, California) are favored at home by 10 1/2 points over the University of Idaho Vandals (4.8, 6.5, SoS=76) (Moscow, Idaho). By SPRS the Aztecs have a .8 rating advantage x 9 = 7 points plus the home field advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 31-21 for San Diego State.
Result:

The South Carolina Gamecocks (5.1, 4.0, SoS=6) (Columbia, South Carolina) are favored at home by 24 1/2 points over the UAB Blazers (6.2, 7.8, SoS=208) (Birmingham, Alabama). Even without taking strength of schedule into account, the Gamecocks are 24-point favorites by SPRS plus 3 points for the home field advantage = 27 points.
Our call: 44-17 for South Carolina.
Result:

The South Florida Bulls (6.0, 3.9, SoS=115) (Tampa, Florida) are favored on the road by 8 1/2 points over the North Carolina State Wolfpack (4.3, 5.7, SoS=16) (Raleigh, North Carolina). By SPRS, the Bulls hold the advantage by 24 points less 3 points home field advantage = 21 points.
Our call: 28-7 for South Florida.
Result:

The Texas Longhorns (7.2, 4.8, SoS=106) (Austin, Texas) are favored at home by 28 points over the Arkansas Razorbacks (5.8, 5.3, SoS=62) (Fayetteville, Arkansas). By SPRS, Texas has 1.8 x 9 = 16-point rating edge plus 3 points for the home advantage = 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Texas.
Result:

The Texas A&M Aggies (4.7, 5.7, SoS=93) (College Station, Texas) are favored at home by 28 1/2 points over the Army Black Knights (3.9, 5.5, SoS=65) (West Point, New York). By SPRS, Texas A&M has an advantage of only about 4 scoreboard points plus the home field advantage of 3 points so that we call it for the Aggies by 1 TD.
Our call: 28-21 for Texas A&M.
Result:

The Toledo Rockets (6.0, 5.6, SoS=107) (Toledo, Ohio) are favored at home by 18 points over the Florida International University Golden Panthers (3.2, 5.4, SoS=8) (University Park, Miami, Florida). By SPRS we give Toledo a 14-point advantage plus the 3-point home advantage = 17 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Toledo.
Result:

The University of Central Florida (UCF) Knights (4.0, 5.1, SoS=56) (Orlando, Florida) are favored on the road by 5 points over the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) Miners (4.9, 6.6, SoS=14) (El Paso, Texas). UCF has a 4-point rating advantage minus the UTEP home field advantage of 3 points makes it a one-point game by SPRS.
Our call: 28-27 for UCF.
Result:

The University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) Rebels (5.5, 5.7, SoS=7) (Las Vegas, Nevada) are favored at home by 3 points over the University of Nevada Wolf Pack (5.9, 6.5, SoS=28) (Reno, Nevada). By SPRS UNLV holds about a 7-point advantage plus the 3 points home team advantage = 10 points.
Our call: 41-31 for UNLV.
Result:

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4.5, 4.4, SoS=36) (Winston-Salem, North Carolina) are favored at home by 16 points over the Navy Midshipmen (7.0, 6.2, SoS=90) (Annapolis, Maryland). Normal stats do not seem to work well in assessing the Wake Forest football team. On paper, by the stats, SPRS rating makes Wake Forest about a 6-point favorite. How will the Demon Deacons do against the Navy running game? Last year at Navy, they won 44-24, in part due to 3 fumbles by the Midshipmen.
Our call: 30-24 for Wake Forest.
Result:

The University of Washington Huskies (4.2, 7.4, SoS=3) (Seattle, Washington) are favored at home by 4 points over the Stanford University Cardinal (4.5, 5.1, SoS=37) (Stanford, Palo Alto, California). The Huskies are 119th in defense by yards per play, in part because their first three opponents were Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma, all ranked teams. The aggressive Stanford defense sacked the San Jose quarterback EIGHT times in the last game (compare that to only two sacks by the Huskers against the same team), so the Washington passing attack will have its hands full. Being a Stanford alum, we see things going the way of the Cardinal, although the strong Washington performance against BYU is a cause for concern. By SPRS, Stanford is favored by about two TDs.
Our call: 37-23 for Stanford.
Result:

The West Virginia Mountaineers (5.4, 4.9, SoS=15) (Morgantown, West Virginia) are favored on the road by 15 1/2 points over the Marshall University Thundering Herd (6.0, 5.5, SoS=64) (Huntington, West Virginia). By SPRS, the Mountaineers are about a 1 TD favorite, minus the Marshall home field advantage = 4 points. Marshall has shown that it can be beaten in the air, but its rushing defense appears to be good, so that West Virginia has its work cut out for it.
Our call: 28-24 for West Virginia.
Result:

The Western Michigan Broncos (6.6, 5.8, SoS=59) (Kalamazoo, Michigan) are favored on the road by 3 1/2 points over the Temple University Owls (4.6, 5.5, SoS=35) (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). By SPRS, the Broncos are about 10-point favorites minus the Temple home field advantage of 3 points = 7 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Western Michigan.
Result:

The University of Wisconsin Badgers (6.2, 4.9, SoS=21) (Madison, Wisconsin) are favored on the road by 7 points over the University of Michigan Wolverines (4.7, 4.2, SoS=31) (Ann Arbor, Michigan). The SPRS ratings make the Badgers the favorites by 12 minus the home field advantage of 3 = 9 points. Since we have Wolverine grads in the family, however, we look for improved Michigan play and the upset win.
Our call: 24-23 for Michigan.
Result:

The University of Rhode Island Rams (Kingston, Rhode Island) at the Boston College Eagles (4.6, 4.2, SoS=98) (Newton, Massachusetts).
Our call: 42-14 for Boston College.
Result:

The Virginia Military Institute (VMI) Keydets (Lexington, Virginia) at the University of Ohio Bobcats (4.8, 4.5, SoS=19) (Athens, Ohio).
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.
Result:

The Morgan State University Golden Bears (Baltimore, Maryland) at the Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, Scarlet Knights (5.5, 6.3, SoS=41) (New Brunswick, Piscataway, New Jersey).
Our call: 49-7 for Rutgers.
Result:

The Central Arkansas Bears (Conway, Arkansas) at the University of Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8.4, 5.7, SoS=193) (Tulsa, Oklahoma):
Our call: 55-24 for Tulsa.
Result:

Weber State Wildcats (Ogden, Utah) at the University of Utah Utes (5.7, 3.5, SoS=18) (Salt Lake City, Utah). Last year Weber State lost 56-7 to Boise State, and this game may not be much different to a similarly strong opponent.
Our call: 51-7 for Utah.
Result:

Sunday, September 28, 2008

The University of Hawaii Warriors (4.8, 5.3, SoS=111) (Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii) are favored at home by 3 points over the San Jose State University Spartans (4.9, 4.7, SoS=86) (San Jose, California). By SPRS current ratings, we favor San Jose State by 10 points minus the Hawaii 3-point home field advantage.
Our call: 30-23 for San Jose State.
Result:

Full post as published by LawPundit on September 22, 2008 (boomark / email).