Legal Commentary

The Inevitable Narrative

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

Matt Yglesias writes:

Now if you'd said on March 5 "looks like Clinton will win Pennsylvania by about 12 points" most people would have said "sounds about right . . . [Obama's likely] failure to fully close the gap was not only predictable but widely predicted weeks ago based on Pennsylvania's age structure, educational attainment, and African-American population.

Of course I agree. I have been writing "demography is political destiny" for quite a while now. It was just as true in Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, etc. It will be just as true in North Carolina on May 6 - Obama will win by double digits.

But of course that is also the problem - Obama can not win beer track white working class voters, women, seniors or Latinos. This is why Hillary is more electable in PA, OH, FL and MI. The question is, as John Judis discusses, what does this mean about Obama's electability in November? The "creative class" has never taken this argument seriously, even applauding such idiotic Obama moves like blocking revotes in FL and MI. Instead, the standard "creative class" response is along the lines of Brad DeLong's insulting post. Alienating Clinton voters is seemingly a goal now.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 15, 2008 (boomark / email).