Legal Commentary

Should Ireland Default?

By Big Tent Democrat

Atrios, pointing to this article on Ireland's precarious financial condition, says "they should just default. Tell the continent to bail out its banks directly if they want." There is actually a very interesting precedent for this, Argentina a decade ago. I wrote about it 2004:

Defying conventional expectations (including my own quite frankly), Argentina has experienced significant economic and employment growth in the last few years while defying the IMF and and the pressures of foreign investors. Larry Rohter of the NYT presents both sides of the argument:

Three years after Argentina declared a record debt default of more than $100 billion, the largest in history, the apocalypse has not arrived. Instead, the economy has grown by 8 percent for two consecutive years, exports have zoomed, the currency is stable, investors are gradually returning and unemployment has eased from record highs - all without a debt settlement or the standard measures required by the International Monetary Fund for its approval.

Argentina's recovery has been undeniable, and it has been achieved at least in part by ignoring and even defying economic and political orthodoxy. Rather than moving to immediately satisfy bondholders, private banks and the I.M.F., as other developing countries have done in less severe crises, the Peronist-led government chose to stimulate internal consumption first and told creditors to get in line with everyone else.

"This is a remarkable historical event, one that challenges 25 years of failed policies," said Mark Weisbrot, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal research group in Washington. "While other countries are just limping along, Argentina is experiencing very healthy growth with no sign that it is unsustainable, and they've done it without having to make any concessions to get foreign capital inflows."

In fact, after ignoring the IMF and charting its own course, in 2005, Argentina found itself in a position to actually pay off its creditors and is now firmly ensconced as a G-20 member.

Perhaps Ireland should look at what Argentina did as a guide.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on November 19, 2010 (boomark / email).