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How Can Obama Lose The Election?

By Big Tent Democrat

Since February, I have been concerned that with all the advantages Barack Obama he could still lose the general election largely because the Republicans have nominated the only Republican in the country who can possibly win, John McCain.

This is a Democratic year and significant increases in our existing majorities in House and the Senate are virtually assured. So how can the Presidency not be a sure thing? Three principal reasons.

One, Barack Obama is vulnerable to a vicious Republican attackon who he is and his inexperience. He is a first term Senator who burst on the scene 4 years ago. His image with the American People is vulnerable to a negative attack. The good news is this is definitely a Change election and the new is in vogue. In 1992, Bill Clinton faced similar vulnerabilities and effectively neutralized them. Given Obama's enormous financial advantage, there should be no problem on this point, unless someone bungles the job.

More . . .

Two, division in the Democratic Party. Today, Democrats are more unified than they were a week ago. But the day Barack Obama names his vice presidential choice, these division could be just as bad - IF he does not choose Hillary Clinton. In my view, to NOT choose Clinton would be a mistake. The only REAL reason not to choose her would be because it likely puts a dent in Obama's Media Darling status. the Media is definitely jamming Obama on this - they do not want Clinton.

An irrational and harmful reason leads to the third reason why Barack Obama might lose - a seeming insistence in the Obama camp to disown the Clinton Wing of the Democratic Party and the Clinton Legacy. I want to try a new way of discussing this to see if I can make my point in a more effective way.

Here is a question to the Obama Camp - do they think the American People perceived the Clinton Presidency in terms of policy (as opposed to the personal) a success or a failure? Do they think that absent the personal issues, that the American People do not think fondly of the 1990s? Do they think that the Clinton Presidency was considered a success in terms of the economy? In terms of foreign policy? Other domestic issues?

Let me put it bluntly, what Democrat in their right mind would want to run away from the Clinton record of governance? I do not understand this impulse in the Barack Obama camp. It strikes me as divisive WITHIN the Party and throwing away an incredible electoral advantage.

Let me put it this way - would you want to be running for the third term of a Clinton Administration or the third term of a Bush Administration? If the American People saw that as the choice presented to it - what do you think they would choose?

Instead, the Obama camp seems intent on distancing itself from the Clinton legacy of governance instead of using it as a an example of what a Democratic Presidency could be like. The Obama camp seems intent on offering the American People an unknown. I think it offers John McCain an opening.

To me, this is how Barack Obama can lose the election in November.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Full post as published by TalkLeft on June 08, 2008 (boomark / email).