Legal Commentary

How Much Does Organization Matter In PA?

By Big Tent Democrat

By Big Tent Democrat

You always hear these stories about "organization." I am always skeptical about the claims of how much organization matters in actual election states, as opposed to caucus states. But today E.J. Dionne said:

I want to go back to this polling business in Pennsylvania. You know, it seems to me, when you look at these numbers right now, the most likely outcome is that she’s got a five point lead, he probably picks up three or four points, maybe two or three points on organization. This is from a very smart Democrat I talked to yesterday when I was up there. But she—those undecideds look an awful like her people, and they seem if you push them that they’re going to go to her. So if you sort of just do it on the numbers, she probably should win a healthy victory. . . . [S]he ought to win that by a pretty decent margin.

I actually do not follow Dionne's math there - if Obama picks up 3 points on organization and Clinton is leading by 5 then even if she wins undecideds by 6-3, she only wins by 5. But I am always skeptical of these claims of organizational advantages, particularly where Clinton has the Governor of PA and the Mayor of Philly working hard for her. But if Dionne is right, then it seems to me he should be expecting a close race in PA. I must say I do not follow Dionne's logic there.

Full post as published by TalkLeft on April 20, 2008 (boomark / email).