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Policy And Politics: The Economy

By Big Tent Democrat

Discussing E.J. Dionne's column today, Booman makes some good points:

Considering that [the column] is supposed to be about [Dems] regaining the initiative, it's pretty weak to lecture the White House about its tendency to defend itself and "the left" about never being satisfied. Those things aren't going to change. We can be critical of that reality, but we ought not offer it up as something to fix so that we can get our mojo back.

In fact it is not something to fix. The White House should tout its accomplishments. They are in the politics business after all. And people dissatisfied with what the White House is doing should say so and work to make them do what they want. That's how it works. But both Booman and Dionne miss the connection between the political problems Dems have and the economic policies of the Obama Administration. More . . .

Dionne writes:

[. . . T]he simple fact that the economy's catastrophic slide was halted and reversed - would, in the abstract, do any administration proud.

Not being Herbert Hoover is NOT an accomplishment. In terms of policy or politics. The fact that Dionne has to trot out the "it could have been worse" defense tells you all you need to know about the inadequacy of the Obama Administration's polices on the economy, job creation and the housing crisis.

And these failures explain almost all of the political trouble the Democrats are in. Booman writes:

There are two things that will help us get our mojo back: Speaker Boehner and Obama's reelection campaign. That's all we need. And improving economy would be nice, but realistically we are going to be fighting over who is to blame for high unemployment and who has a better plan to get something through Congress that will create jobs.

(Emphasis supplied.) If that is where the political battle is going to be fought, then the Dems' political fortunes do not look bright.

President Obama will, of course, be tough to beat in a reelection campaign. But if his team had provided a better performance on economic policy, he would be unbeatable.

In 1984, Reagan won reelection by 18 points. In 1996, Clinton won reelection by 9 points. When a President is perceived to have done a good job on the economy, he wins reelection easily.

In 1980, Jimmy Carter lost a landslide. In 1992, Bush 41 was beaten by 5 points by Clinton. In 2004, Bush 43 squeaked by a terrible candidate, John Kerry. When a President is not perceived to have done a good job on the economy, he is vulnerable.

Obviously, at this point, the economic performance looks more like it did for Carter, Bush 41 and Bush 43, than it did for Reagan and Clinton.

But Obama looks more like Bush 43 politically to me than Carter or Bush 41. He has a fervent base in the African American community. The political calculation of the White House is that The Deal will do enough to win over tax averse, socially moderate independents who will blanche at a GOP nominee who will have had to move right of Attila the Hun to win the GOP nomination. Indeed, look for Obama to make a lot of noise about immigration reform in the next 2 years as well.

Here's the problem with the strategy, The Deal only works as short term stimulus (and weak stimulus at that) IF spending is not cut. But the GOP WILL cut spending. The GOP base will demand it. And if the economy continue to be woeful, if unemployment remains high, if the housing crisis remain unattended, the Obama will be very vulnerable.

Good policy is good politics. The Obama Administration economic policies have not been good. And there is no promise of better policies now.

The "mojo" ain't coming back without a better economy.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on December 30, 2010 (boomark / email).