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Legal Commentary
: AlthouseSeriously? The GOP has a 10-point lead on the generic ballot? Actually, it's more like a 14-point lead.
... Gallup?s survey ? and some other generic ballot polls ? are still polling registered rather than likely voters, whereas its polls of likely voters are generally more reliable in midterm elections. At FiveThirtyEight, we?ve found that the gap between registered and likely voter polls this year is about 4 points in the Republicans? favor ? so a 10-point lead in a registered voter poll is the equivalent of about 14 points on a likely-voter basis.
Full post as published by Althouse on August 31, 2010 (boomark / email).
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Dem Landslide: Lead By 12 In Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot
DONT GET COCKY, KID. Gallup: GOP Takes 10-Point Lead In Generic Ballot.
Generic Congressional ballot: Republican 48%, Democrat 36%
Obama Leading Solidly in Polls.
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