Legal Commentary

Sunday Afternoon Open Thread

By Big Tent Democrat

I think Obama has this election won barring some unforeseeable event. But I find it silly when Obama supporters tie themselves in knots to explain away non-positive news. Not to pick on anyone in particular, but tremayne at Open Left provides a prime example of this silly stuff:

[W]hy the divergence today [between Ras and Gallup]? Here's one item I found on TPM written during the Democratic primary which may explain it:

[. . .] [I]t was Saturday, the toughest day of the week for polling. . . . In general this cycle, Saturday polling has hurt Obama. It tends to undersample those who are out and about, and has a particularly large effect in robopolls, where many respondents hang up when they're busy. Gallup has a much more robust methodology, and though the poll is fairly new, we've seen much less variation between its Saturday and weekday samples that with Rasmussen.

Is this true? I seriously doubt it, but worse than that, the attempt to spin everything positive to Obama is just self defeating. What you look like is an analyst with a built in pro-Obama "house effect." Just treat day to day poll movements, especially trackers, for what they are worth, very little. No need to spin every single twitch in a poll. Makes you look like a hack.

This is an Open Thread.

Speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on July 27, 2008 (boomark / email).