Legal Commentary

Young Voters: Now And Future Democrats?

By Big Tent Democrat

There is no doubt that Barack Obama is dominating among younger voters. Democracy Corps posits that this will be significant for Democrats over time:

Barack Obama will make history in one week in no small measure due to the enthusiasm and commitment of America’s youth. The Obama campaign awakened a generation. . . . [T]he stability of his support among young people, largely uninterrupted throughout the year, and their growing enthusiasm is nothing short of remarkable and will influence American politics for generations to come.

(Emphasis supplied.) Let's hope it is so. I am curious though if Obama is making his voters Democrats. More . . .

In terms of THIS election, it seems whatever gains Obama has made among younger white voters, and Democracy Corps has Obama winning whites under 30 by 51-38 (while Kerry lost whites under 30 by 55-44) has been offset by losing older whites. The DKos/R2000 poll has McCain winning whites by 55-40 (Kerry lost whites by 41-58). Assuming white youth vote is higher this year and given Obama's gains in that segment, the inescapable conclusion is that Obama is doing worse with whites over 30 than Kerry did. This of course was part of the tradeoff when Obama was nominated instead of Hillary Clinton (along with record African American turnout and margins.)

But Obama seems assured of victory now so that seems less important than whether young whites will vote for Democrats down ticket and in the future. Democracy Corps does not answer these questions. They seem critical to me.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Full post as published by TalkLeft on October 31, 2008 (boomark / email).