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IDC 2009 Predictions

I like the IDC predictions for 2009. They're a bit corporate so some people have trouble making the connections to the social service sector and libraries so I've added some comments on them. You can get access to the ful report >here.

IDC's TOP 10 PREDICTIONS
IDC Predictions 2009: An Economic Pressure Cooker Will Accelerate the IT Industry Transformation

"In 2009, two powerful forces will collide in the IT market: a deep global recession, and
a radical IT industry transformation that has been in progress for the past several
years. These two forces, interacting with each other, loom large in virtually all of our
10 predictions themes for 2009:

` Global IT growth will be cut in half ? it will be critically important for suppliers to
orient toward segments that are spending at above-market growth rates."

Some areas that can be expected to spend above other market areas are the public sector. This is partly due to the pressure on public sector budgets due to tax and investment shortfalls. They still need to do their business but need to do it more effectively. Additional stimulus investments in infrastructure to create employment will also add projects here. This would imply that library management would be well advised to further develop good relationships with IT strategy folks in their town, city, state, consortia, univeristy, college, board, etc. One key trends towards SaaS (software as a service) can generate good savings with less loss of control than the traditional model of partner hosted services.

` Emerging markets and small businesses spending will slow significantly ? but
outperform the market even more than in 2008.

Public Libraries have rarely had huge service relationships with large businesses but have been a god-send for small and medium-sized enterprises. Libraries have also been huge suporters of entrepreneurs and home-workers. Now is not the time to cut these services. It is the time to grow and promote them. Be part of the solution and don't contribute to the ongoing economic crisis. And make sure your advocacy communications include these services.

` The IT industry's expansion to "the cloud" will accelerate ? as the bad economy
drives more users to the cloud model's low costs, and IT suppliers follow suit.

SaaS - software as a service - is huge. You can reduce your total cost of information systems by up to 40% by cooperating on a higher level and still retain the control in the areas that matter. For library management, this is one of those areas where staff will not usually bring it forward as a solution since it impacts their jobs and generates significant change for all. This is one of those times where leadership is difficult but when it's a choice of survival, thriving or awful cuts . . . .

` The struggling offline economy will drive more shoppers to the online economy
? as over 1.5 billion people go online, driving over $8 trillion in online sales.

Just remember that libraries are part of the online economy. Just because your library doesn't usually charge fees, doesn't mean that online holds, online fine payments, and easy downloads of audiobooks, games, e-books, and music aren't just the same as the big online retailers. You can piggyback on this trend as more and more people use the web for transactions. Make sure your community thinks of you this way. Promote the services that regular users think of as normal to attact new users looking for savings.

` The telecom industry will consolidate, and expand, in 2009 ? driven by the need
for scale in developed markets, a wireless land-grab in emerging markets, and
the promise of the cloud model to greatly expand telcos' value-added services.

You wireless is their wireless. You're part of this trend and bridge divides. Promote it. Expect ownership changes in your providers.

` It will be a grim year for mobile gadgets ? as volume growth flattens in mobile
phones, as netbook PCs expand the market but threaten notebook pricing and
margins, and as consolidation looms in personal navigation devices.

I just bought two net PC's. They're awesome and so cheap (my ASUS was $349.00 Cdn). Honestly, when an IT company's pricing is threatened that good for consumers like libraries and their users. I am always looking for wireless zones and I see these everywhere. So, if you serve students and the wireless crowd. Make sure you've promoted your fine space as a good place to work. If you're not wireless yet you're way behind and need to get on board. Even a simple wireless $200.00 router in the lobby is a start.

` The crumbling of the "business/personal" wall in IT will accelerate ? as the
economy and the "2.0" culture drive consumer and business technology together,
opening new opportunities and threatening to create new IT industry dinosaurs.

Lordy, libraries broke the business/personal wall from the start! Only a few silly libraries try to control what users do from this perspective. I set up many business conferences on Facebook alone and also do personal stuff there. I am always amazed when some public institution tries to control my use and ruin my ability to do business. The other lesson in this trend is to share your views with your users. Engage them.

` The reinvention of information access and analysis will accelerate in 2009 ?
driven by blow-back from the financial industry fiasco, the growing information
avalanche from social networking and digital video, and the ambitions of key
vendors to own the last ? and most strategic ? patch of IT market real estate.

Like I've been saying for years. Libraries are social insitutitons an the social web 2.0 tools are made for us! Ride the wave. Then again, don't get too attached to any one few service. It'll mutate and change and potentially disappear. Remain flexible. Watch for huge and fast changes in streaming media affecting your DVD business. Entertainment choices mutate during recessions but don't decline in total.

` Green technologies will have a good year, disguised as "cost cutting" ? with
good demand for green tech that can deliver near-term savings, but temporarily
shoving capital-intensive green investments down the agenda.

Libraries are green. We lend books to many and more. From the IT perspective we could get better by retiring old energy inefficient servers and coopoerating more with SaaS, etc. Many times the energy and carbon footprints of libraries are invisible to staff but they're there.

` Government initiatives in 2009 will catalyze massive IT investments and industry
growth ? focused on economic recovery, energy and health industry
streamlining, and improving financial markets' stability and transparency.

And amongst our top questions in libraries - finance, health, energy, the economy, and more. We're ready, just come on down !

Of course the stupidest predictions I've seen lately are those that are predicting the end of web 2.0 and Library 2.0 because of a few companies going under. What a laugh! Then again I recall a few folks saying the web was so over in the Dotcom bust in the stock market in the 90's. Some folks have trouble differentiating long term trends from investor confidence and industry concatenations.

Be careful out there.

Stephen

Full post as published by Stephen's Lighthouse on February 17, 2009 (boomark / email).